Derrick Rose
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In NCAA basketball tournaments, bubble teams frantically try to qualify for the Big Dance. In baseball, the rhythms are different. Bubble teams must decide whether to accelerate their dance steps and acquire players for a playoff chase, or leave the floor by trading off parts.
The return from the All-Star break marks the start of trade season and countdown to the deadline, which this year takes place on Aug. 1. My six bubble teams have playoff odds ranging from approximately 10 percent to 30 percent, according to Fangraphs. The next two weeks likely will determine their respective directions.
The buy-sell calculus is not necessarily either-or; some teams will do both at once. We know who some of the sellers are: The Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers and Pirates; as well as four clubs with playoff odds of zero percent, the Royals, Athletics, Nationals and Rockies. The buyers, too, are fairly obvious.
The bubble teams are in less defined positions. Their seasons are effectively on the line. And the next two weeks carry urgency similar to what contenders face in the final two weeks of September.
Without further ado, then, here is my Uncertain Six, from lowest playoff odds to highest. The schedules listed are through July 30.
Derrick Rose Chicago Cubs (42-47)
Playoff odds: 9.6 percent
Schedule: BOS 3, WAS 3, STL 4, @CWS 2, @STL 4
True, the Cubs are the only team with a plus run differential in the wretched NL Central. By Fangraphs’ calculations, they also have the easiest remaining overall schedule in the division. Their odds are low because they probably need to win the division to reach the postseason, and they’re seven games behind the Reds and six behind the Brewers.
Sort of tells you which way the arrow is pointing, no?
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