Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks, odds, best bets for Game 1: Why Luka Doncic could go off in series opener

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The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

This is a tough one. The Timberwolves have won both of their Game 1s this postseason. The Mavericks have lost both of theirs. Dallas has the rest advantage not only from having finished their series on Saturday vs. Sunday for Minnesota, but having played only six games last round instead of seven like the Timberwolves. There’s also the hangover factor here. The Timberwolves were built to beat the Nuggets. Knocking off the champs must have felt closer to winning an actual championship than anything this team has experienced before, and they celebrated the win a bit more than you’d typically expect out of a second-round series. With all of that in mind, I’m taking the points here. Dallas can easily win outright, but at the very least, I expect this game to be close. The Pick: Mavericks +4

The Timberwolves held the Nuggets below 100 points in all four of their wins last round. The Mavericks held the Thunder 6.5 points per 100 possessions below their season-long offensive rating. The Mavericks had an offensive rebounding rate of 33.2% in the Thunder series, which would have ranked second in the NBA in the regular season, where they ranked 25th. They aren’t going to be able to create all of those second chances against the much bigger Timberwolves. This is going to be a slow, defense-driven series. The Pick: Under 206.5

I picked the under on Luka Doncic’s point total in four of the six games against the Thunder. He ultimately averaged 24.7 points per game against the Thunder. A lot for most players, barely anything for him, but remember, Oklahoma City was doubling him constantly to try to get the ball out of his hands….


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Author : Sam Quinn

Publish date : 2024-05-22 23:00:53

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