Can Giannis Antetokounmpo be trusted in Game 4? Plus, other best bets for Monday

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Bucks at Heat, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Key Trend: Giannis has played only 11 minutes in the series.The Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 42.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-111)

Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to return tonight, as his team sits in a 2-1 hole in the first round of the playoffs. But is he healthy? Not just healthy enough to play, but healthy enough to be effective?

Giannis suffered a lower back contusion in Game 1, left the game, and has not returned to action since. While a part of me wonders if Milwaukee had hoped it could “play it safe” and get by without him, it’s hard to put a lot of stock in that. Sure, winning Game 2 may have given them the confidence they could do so without him again in Game 3, but is that a risk you’re willing to take? 

It’s more likely that the back injury was more severe than Milwaukee first let on and impacted Giannis’ ability to play at a high level. I won’t be surprised to see a slightly diminished Giannis tonight. One that could shy away from possible contact that could aggravate his back injury. So maybe he doesn’t go as hard to the basket for a layup or fight for a rebound. Maybe he takes on more of a diversionary role, somebody Miami has to account for because he’s freaking Giannis Antetokounmpo, freeing up space for the rest of the Bucks.

Or maybe Giannis aggravates the injury and plays limited minutes ago. There are many reasons to be skeptical about him hitting the over on this prop.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you’d rather bet the game than a player prop, SportsLine’s Projection Model has a B-graded play on the total, but doesn’t see much value on either the spread or money line.

💰 The Picks

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Author : Tom Fornelli

Publish date : 2023-04-24 20:04:19

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