Klay Thompson will make a mark in Game 4 vs. Lakers, plus other best bets for Monday

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Warriors at Lakers, 10 p.m. | TV: TNT

Key Trend: Klay has scored at least 22 in five of his last seven games.The Pick: Klay Thompson Over 21.5 Points (-106)

A lot has been made of the up-and-down nature of Anthony Davis’ performance in the postseason, and I considered taking the under 41.5 PAR on The Brow tonight. But it’s too obvious a play, and I don’t see much value on the line where it’s at.

I do see plenty of value in Klay Thompson’s points total. He shot only 42.6% overall and 38.3% from three in the first three games against the Kings, averaging 18.3 points per game. Those are good numbers for nearly everybody else in the league but sub-par for Klay. He also shot only two free throws in the first three games.

Things have changed since. While he’s had a couple of bad three-point shooting games (he was 4-for-19 in Games 6 and 7 vs. Sacramento), overall, he’s been a much more reliable scorer. The biggest difference has been getting to the line, as he’s averaged three free throw attempts per game while shooting 40% from three. That’s caused his scoring average to climb to 22.7 points per game.

What makes me even more confident is that he’s averaging that 22.7 points, despite a 15-point performance in Game 3. One in which Klay was an awful 5-for-14 from the field and saw him sit out most a chunk of the fourth quarter with the Lakers winning by 30. Thompson has made no secret of how important this series is for him. He wants to make a mark. I expect he makes one tonight. I’m taking the over 21.5 points here, but I will sprinkle a bit on an alternate total that sees Klay scoring at least 30 too.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model doesn’t like much of anything here, but SportsLine’s handicappers have shared a few of their favorite props for… [ad_2]
Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/klay-thompson-will-make-a-mark-in-game-4-vs-lakers-plus-other-best-bets-for-monday/

Author : Tom Fornelli

Publish date : 2023-05-08 20:17:40

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