Do the Heat really have almost no chance against the Celtics?

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A graphic tweeted out by ESPN with a stat from their analytics team about the Miami Heat-Boston Celtics series got a lot of attention.

It said the Heat had practically no chance to win the Eastern Conference finals.

Anyone who has bet for a while rolled their eyes at that 97% figure. That’s worse than your typical No. 15 seed in the first round of an NCAA tournament game. If you’re using implied odds to set a fair line on the Celtics to win the series with that 97% figure, they’d be about -3200 to win. If a sportsbook is hanging those odds, be sure there would be a line to bet the Heat.

In reality, BetMGM has the Celtics as a -550 favorite to win the series, with the Heat as a +400 underdog. Even if that 3% for the Heat is extreme, it does illustrate that Boston is clearly the favorite. Do the Heat have any realistic shot to win?

We’ll start to find out on Wednesday night. Boston is an 8.5-point favorite in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals at BetMGM.

There is a logical argument to be made for the Heat to be worth at least a look as a +400 underdog to win the series. A lot of it has to do with the Celtics. Boston has looked vulnerable. The Celtics, a No. 2 seed in the East, had trouble putting away the Atlanta Hawks in the first round and lost two home games in the second round to the Philadelphia 76ers. This isn’t some playoff juggernaut; Boston has lost five games in two rounds. The Celtics are good, especially when they hit their top gear, but they’re not unbeatable.

The Heat took care of the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in five games in the first round, then handled the New York Knicks in six games. And not that regular-season results matter much anymore, but they were 2-2 against Boston. The Heat have an uphill battle, but they’re tough, do everything pretty well and Jimmy Butler has been playing out of his mind. Putting their chances at 3% is insulting.

Boston should advances to the NBA Finals. But it might not be that easy for the Celtics.

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) has led his team to the Eastern Conference finals. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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Author : Yahoo Sports

Publish date : 2023-05-17 13:31:01

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