Can the Nuggets stay undefeated at home this postseason? Plus, other best bets for Thursday

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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Heat at Nuggets, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ABC

Latest Odds:

Denver Nuggets
-9

Key Trend: The Nuggets are 30-18-1 ATS at home this season, and have won the first game of their first three playoff series by an average of 17.7 points. The Pick: Nuggets -9 (-110)

I like the Nuggets at home tonight for a number of reasons. The first is that the Nuggets have been so much better at home all season. In the postseason, the Nuggets have played eight games at Ball Arena and won all eight. They’ve gone 5-3 ATS in those games and have won by an average of 12.25 points.

Now, it must be pointed out that they were only favored by more than nine points in one of those games, and it was as 10-point favorites against Minnesota in Game 5. But while plenty of people will argue “rest vs. rust,” it’s a dumb argument. The Nuggets have been able to get right while the Heat were in a seven-game battle against the Celtics. I’d rather be rested and slightly rusty than worn the hell out.

Finally, while there’s a bit too much made of it, the altitude matters. It’s part of the reason the Nuggets are so good at home (the biggest part is the whole being a great team thing). So for Miami to play a seven-game series against Boston and then have to play at altitude is a lot to ask. Particularly for…

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Source link : https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/can-the-nuggets-stay-undefeated-at-home-this-postseason-plus-other-best-bets-for-thursday/

Author : Tom Fornelli

Publish date : 2023-06-01 20:15:42

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