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Greetings and welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS lineup. The NBA is back in action following its annual All-Star break, and we are all set to dive into the remainder of the season. If you’re planning to participate in NBA DFS, it’s crucial to monitor lineup announcements and be prepared for late swaps. Staying on top of these changes is one of the best strategies to maintain an edge over your competition and enhance your chances of a profitable night.
Tonight features a nine-game slate, which, in my opinion, strikes the perfect balance. The key is to make informed decisions and choose your opportunities wisely—this is what I’m here to assist with. Let’s analyze the top contenders for this slate.
**Nikola Jokić (C – DEN)**
Although Charlotte tends to play at a slower pace, which may limit the ceiling somewhat, Nikola Jokić still has a prime opportunity to showcase his talent, especially with the Hornets facing a road back-to-back and possibly missing Mark Williams.
It feels repetitive to highlight Jokić, but it’s hard to ignore him. Denver is on a roll with eight consecutive victories, and Jokić has surpassed 66 DraftKings points in six of his last seven outings. His level of production, reliability, and upside makes him a standout option in DFS. With today’s broader slate, there are likely to be many value plays available, justifying Jokić’s inclusion.
**De’Aaron Fox (PG, SG – SAS)**
It’s frustrating when a player clearly stands out on one platform more than another, so if you’re a FanDuel player, you may want to consider passing on this one. Otherwise, De’Aaron Fox is poised to be a fantastic choice tonight and is set to be one of the most popular picks.
Fox is averaging 43 DraftKings points per game, and it’s worth noting how poorly the Suns have performed this season. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency over the past ten games and 25th overall this season, while the Spurs have been increasing their pace as the season progresses. Given his pricing and the current makeup of the Spurs’ lineup, Fox could easily be a safe option this evening.
**Miles Bridges (PF, SF – CHA)**
I didn’t anticipate discussing multiple players from the Charlotte-Denver game this early on, but here we are. Yes, the Hornets are dealing with fatigue from a back-to-back, yet that means more opportunities for Miles Bridges.
With LaMelo Ball expected to be sidelined and facing a Denver team that plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, Bridges had a usage rate of 33% yesterday against the Lakers, and we can expect something similar tonight. With a favorable matchup against a below-average defense and an uptick in pace, he has the potential to exceed 50 DraftKings points again.
**Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)**
In this section, I’ll also mention Jalen Brunson, as both Knicks players appear to be excellent cash game considerations tonight. The Bulls have given up the second-most fantasy points overall, along with being particularly generous to point guards and centers this season.
Examining their recent performances, Chicago’s defense has deteriorated, ranking as the third-worst over the last ten games, while maintaining the third-highest pace. Playing at home, the Knicks are in position for significant scoring tonight. Both Towns and Brunson are affordable options that can deliver high ceilings while helping to round out your lineup with reliable picks.
**Anfernee Simons (PG, SG – POR)**
This isn’t the most glamorous choice, but given Portland’s current roster, Anfernee Simons will see a significant increase in usage. With Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant expected to miss tonight’s game—keep an eye on Grant’s status—Simons could become an essential play.
His expected elevated usage, especially if Scoot Henderson is also out, could result in Simons logging around 37 minutes. Even with lower volume, he can still produce efficiently against a Lakers squad that currently ranks in the top ten for pace over the last ten games, and they might be shorthanded as well this evening.
**Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)**
Between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, it feels like one of them is destined for a standout performance tonight, especially against a Hawks team that’s been decimated by injuries and has played at the fastest pace in the league over recent games. This matchup represents a prime opportunity for a Magic team currently ranked 29th in pace.
Only two other teams have allowed opposing power forwards to score more fantasy points. Given Banchero’s recent performances—surpassing 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games, including 46 against Atlanta just ten days ago—he is well-priced for this advantageous matchup, making him an excellent choice for cash lineups.
**Kevin Durant (PF, C – PHX)**
I usually favor high-risk, high-reward options for GPPs, but tonight, I’m perplexed by Kevin Durant’s potential ownership. I anticipate him to be a roughly 15% optimal play but initially appearing closer to 5%.
San Antonio has been playing at a swift pace, and over the last 15 games, no team has surrendered more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Spurs. With Devin Booker returning but Bol Bol starting, Durant’s usage rate, currently at 30%, is set to increase. This matchup is simply too appealing to ignore.
**Tyrese Haliburton (PG – IND)**
Tyrese Haliburton is another standout choice, with a mere 8% projected ownership currently. While Memphis boasts the seventh-most efficient defense overall, their recent play has dipped to 18th during the past ten games. The question remains: which version of the Grizzlies will show up tonight? Regardless, this matchup presents a high-volume opportunity.
With a total of 250 for the game, it’s surprising that more people aren’t considering players from Indiana and Memphis. Myles Turner fits nicely into this scenario, and while many players are priced for a high-scoring affair, the potential for a standout performance is certainly there. Haliburton is expected to lead the charge and should easily eclipse 40 fantasy points.
**Austin Reaves (PG, SG, SF – LAL)**
This suggestion leans more toward a gamble, but with Luka Dončić and LeBron James both questionable, Austin Reaves could become an appealing late swap option. Should both superstars play, Reaves may still prove to be a clever GPP selection.
Yes, he has recently had a lackluster performance, which may deter owners from selecting him no matter how the scenarios unfold with L.A. Earlier this month, Reaves produced an impressive 70 fantasy points against Indiana, showcasing his ability to achieve high outputs when called upon.
**Elfrid Payton (PG – CHA)**
This play hinges on LaMelo Ball being out; if he is, you probably won’t need much persuading to pick Payton. If both he and Mark Williams remain sidelined, Payton and Nick Smith Jr. could become viable value plays, making Charlotte one of the most targeted teams in tonight’s lineup.
**Chris Paul (PG – SAS)**
Similar to my thoughts on De’Aaron Fox, Chris Paul represents an excellent value option. His projected ownership is likely to be high, suggesting he’s a better fit for cash lineups; however, he’ll receive a considerable boost in usage against a lackluster defense.
Over their last 30 games, the Suns have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, with even more in the last 15 games. Paul is expected to score more and log over 30 minutes tonight, projecting around 31 DraftKings points.
**Santi Aldama (PF – MEM)**
Even though Santi Aldama comes off the bench, he still averages around 24 minutes a game. On the court, his usage rate approaches 20%. He has surpassed 30 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Considering the high-scoring nature of tonight’s matchup and the expected volume of possessions, it’s reasonable to predict another solid performance from Aldama against Indiana.
