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The opening day of this year’s SoFi Play-In Tournament features the No. 7 and No. 8 teams from each conference.
The 2025 NBA playoffs commence with the SoFi Play-In Tournament. Prepare for the excitement with insights and forecasts for Tuesday’s games, which will decide the No. 7 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences, along with two of the four teams vying for the No. 8 seeds in both conferences on Friday.
**The victor:** Advances to challenge Boston in the first round as the No. 7 seed.
**The defeated:** Competes against the winner of Wednesday’s Heat-Bulls game for the East’s No. 8 seed.
**Regular-season record:** Series is tied at 2-2.
**Key focus:** Differing styles of play
Orlando showcases a dynamic duo of young forwards, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who averaged 61.3 points per game against the Hawks. In comparison, the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard partnered for a top NBA average of 55.3 points this season. The Hawks rely more heavily on their guards and wing players. Meanwhile, the Magic adopt a slower pace, ranking last in tempo, while the Hawks sit at third overall. Although Orlando tends to be more physical, Atlanta received more fouls over the season matchups. A drawn-out game benefits the Magic, while a fast-paced battle favors the Hawks.
**Crucial matchup:** Trae Young vs. a rotation of defenders
Jalen Suggs, Orlando’s primary point guard, was unable to face Atlanta this season due to a quadriceps surgery in early January. This leaves the challenge of Trae Young to various Orlando defenders, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Anthony Black, Gary Harris, and Cole Anthony.
Young shines on significant stages, and with heightened attention on this game, it could feel like a performance at Madison Square Garden. His average stats (24.2 points per game, 11.6 assists per game) skewed towards scoring against Orlando: 28.3 points per game, 8.0 assists per game. He registered 51 double-doubles combining points and assists; when the competition tightens, Young elevates his game. He led the league in clutch assists and clutch free throws, ranking third in both clutch points and clutch three-pointers.
**Forecast:** Magic
While the Hawks are experienced in Play-In scenarios with a solid 3-1 record in such situations leading to their last two first-round appearances in 2022 and 2023, the Magic may have the advantage of urgency. They are eager to redeem a season that was anticipated to improve from last year’s 47 victories and a Game 7 battle against Cleveland. Orlando concluded with five wins in their last six games and 12 victories in 18 matchups to finish at .500—the first non-winning team to win a division. They’ve navigated injuries to Banchero and Wagner and recovered from the losses of Suggs and Moritz Wagner, finding stability with their forward duo and defense.
**The victor:** Advances to take on Houston in the first round as the No. 7 seed.
**The loser:** Competes against the Wednesday winner of the Dallas-Sacramento matchup for the West’s No. 8 seed.
**Regular-season outcome:** Golden State edged out with a 3-1 victory.
**Eye on:** Play-In Jimmy
While he and his fans might prefer the title “Playoff Jimmy,” the reality is apparent: this is the third straight season Butler has influenced his team’s path to the Play-In. His tendency to sit out regular-season contests required Miami to fight their way up in 2023 and 2024, and this year, he repeated the feat with the Heat. His impact on Golden State was clear as they improved from 25-26 to 23-8 since his arrival. He led the Warriors in free throw scoring over 30 games, trailing only Steph Curry, but his shooting efficiency, both inside and beyond the arc, dipped. Furthermore, he is currently under observation for an injury after taking a knee to his left thigh during Sunday’s final game against the LA Clippers.
**Notable matchup:** Ja Morant vs. Steph Curry
If you appreciate sturdy defense, you’ll witness two of the best in the league: Jaren Jackson Jr. from Memphis and Draymond Green from Golden State. Both are expected to receive votes for the Kia Defensive Player of the Year and play pivotal roles in their respective teams’ defensive strategies. However, the spotlight will likely be on the electrifying and aggressive point guards: the explosive Morant versus the ever-moving, long-range threat Curry.
Interestingly, both players showed extreme scoring variance in their season matchups. Morant registered just nine points in their first encounter, but exploded for 36 in his next game, while Curry scored 13 points, then only two, before finishing with 52 in the final game. A contest of such caliber would be a thrilling best-of-seven series, but with the stakes of elimination on the line, the intensity will be palpable.
**Prediction:** Warriors
Memphis hasn’t been trending in the right direction as the playoffs approach, losing six of their last ten (including the postseason final game under coach Taylor Jenkins and five of the next nine under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo). Moreover, the Grizzlies failed to secure a win in California this season, suffering defeats in all eight outings. Golden State lost their 82nd game and missed a secure playoff position, but for the last two months, extending the championship window for Curry and Green has been their focus. With Butler’s aid in getting this far, the Warriors look poised to seize their opportunities and advance to a legitimate first-round series against Houston or Oklahoma City.
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Steve Aschburner has covered the NBA since 1980. You can reach him via email, explore his archive, or follow him on X.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
