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The concluding day of this year’s SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament will finalize the No. 8 seeds for each conference. Prepare for the excitement with detailed previews and forecasts for Friday’s games.
The victor: Will progress to face Cleveland in the opening round as the No. 8 seed.
The defeated: Will be eliminated.
Regular-season outcomes: Tied, 2-2.
Watch for: Guarding Trae Young during pick-and-roll situations
The Heat can assign an initial defender to Young, likely Andrew Wiggins if they field the same lineup that began in Chicago on Wednesday. However, the crucial factor is their approach to defending the pick-and-roll, as Young has had an astonishing 3,495 ball-screens (774 more than the next closest player) set for him this season.
Young excels more as a passer than a shooter, and the Orlando Magic effectively curtailed his assist opportunities on Tuesday. He shot just 8-for-21, and his 18 passes that resulted in a shot tied for his sixth-lowest total this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The Heat can also dampen Young’s influence by switching defensive assignments, but that could expose them at the rim or on the boards.
Key matchup: Tyler Herro vs. Dyson Daniels
No one has defended Herro more during this season than Daniels, even though he missed the first of their four encounters. He is expected to take on that role again on Friday, with the Heat aiming to separate the Kia Defensive Player of the Year contender from their leading scorer.
Anticipate Young being involved in action on that end. Alec Burks, the starter Young will likely guard, has set just 19 ball-screens for Herro throughout the season, six of which occurred in games against the Hawks. Young must be able to hold off Herro long enough for Daniels to recover defensively; if Daniels can maintain his assignment, Miami may struggle to score.
Prediction: Hawks
The home team triumphed in all four regular-season matchups between these squads, with the discrepancy purely stemming from the Heat’s offensive performance. They averaged 99.5 points per 100 possessions in their two games in Atlanta, in stark contrast to 132.5 in the two in Miami, where they shot an astonishing 41-for-75 (55%) from beyond the arc. Davion Mitchell and Haywood Highsmith combined to shoot 16-for-20 from three-point range in those contests.
The Heat don’t need to recreate such offensive efficiency to win in Atlanta on Friday, but the Hawks should have more offensive options available. They likely feel more liberated offensively after facing Orlando’s No. 2 ranked defense that stifled them earlier this week.
The winner: Will advance to challenge Oklahoma City in the first round as the No. 8 seed.
The defeated: Will be eliminated.
Regular-season outcomes: Memphis, 3-1.
Watch for: The physical battle inside
The Grizzlies outscored their opponents by an average of 7.9 points in the paint each game, the second-best differential in the league during the regular season. The Mavericks had a negative paint differential but possess a stronger lineup now with a healthy and robust frontcourt including P.J. Washington, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford. Their backcourt also boasts greater size compared to Memphis.
To keep the Grizzlies out of the paint, it starts with transition defense, as Memphis led the league with 32.8 points per game in that category. From there, it becomes a matter of positioning, rebounding, and drawing fouls. Although the league saw an unprecedented number of three-point attempts this season, the outcome of this game will likely hinge on the interior battle.
Key matchup: Davis vs. Jaren Jackson Jr.
The internal showdown features these two skilled power forwards, who will also spend some time at center. Davis’ usage rate with the Mavericks (31.6% during the regular season, 32.5% on Wednesday) would mark his highest rate in the past eight seasons. Meanwhile, Jackson has taken on a larger offensive role over the last two seasons.
Both players performed well against each other earlier in the season when Davis was with the Lakers. While basketball isn’t solely a one-on-one competition, this matchup will be captivating and vital on Friday.
Bench contributions may become crucial when the Grizzlies and Mavericks clash in the Play-In Tournament.
Prediction: Grizzlies
The Grizzlies, despite struggling against tougher competition, compiled an impressive 36-9 record (17-4 at home) against teams that finished the regular season at or below .500. While both teams are capable of dominating inside, Memphis holds a superior advantage on the perimeter. Ja Morant and Desmond Bane combined for 52 points during the Grizzlies’ defeat at Golden State on Tuesday, while the Mavericks’ top perimeter defenders — Danté Exum and Max Christie — often come off the bench, logging fewer than 20 minutes against Sacramento.
This matchup could hinge on possession metrics (turnovers and rebounds), where the Grizzlies should have the upper hand, thus creating essential transition chances.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior statistical analyst at NBA.com. Feel free to email him here, view his archives here, and follow him on X.
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