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OKLAHOMA CITY— Achieving consensus on any topic can be a challenge, yet the feedback is in regarding Oklahoma City, and nearly all of it suggests the Thunder have struck gold.
“Some may argue that they’ve reached this level ahead of schedule. If that’s true, the rest of the NBA could be facing the prospect of a dynasty.”
Additionally:
“The Thunder have limited growth potential remaining, but the idea that a team this proficient can seamlessly improve in multiple areas is utterly daunting.”
Moreover:
“They’ve surged to the Finals, and we should start getting accustomed to this trend.”
What’s not to appreciate about the Thunder’s prospects, not only in the current NBA Finals but in future ones as well? They boast a youthful “Big 3” in an age where such configurations are becoming increasingly rare.
Yet, those optimistic predictions weren’t referring to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. They were reminiscing about Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook (both 23), and James Harden (22) and the team that reached the Finals in 2012.
Yes, that Thunder. That Big 3.
The nascent dynasty that ultimately didn’t materialize.
Until Shai evolved into one of the league’s most innovative scorers, Williams emerged as an All-Star, and the Thunder charged through a remarkable 68-win season, only facing a playoff challenge from the Nuggets, the narrative surrounding this franchise had been a cautionary tale from 14 years prior.
They drafted three future MVPs, had them all together just before they hit their peaks, surrounded them with capable role players, and placed the league on alert, only to settle for that single Finals appearance, a few near-misses, and ultimately a complete reset.
Such a sequence of events might have derailed many organizations, and while OKC did experience some hardship, it was fleeting, and now look—they’re back on the grand stage, with a new trio that might prove to be even stronger and more durable.
Perhaps this time those once-optimistic forecasts will hold true, and signs suggest that might indeed be the case. Not only are Shai, Williams, and Chet evolving into a formidable force, their supporting cast — with an average age of 24 — is just beginning to make strides.
Let’s examine the two Big 3 eras and explain why 2025 is unlikely to mirror 2012:
The Thunder trio of Durant, Westbrook, and Harden brought OKC its first NBA Finals appearance in 2012.
That group’s greatest asset was its potential, not its past accomplishments. Indeed, during the 2012 playoffs, OKC defeated the preceding three Western Conference finalists consecutively and came back from a 0-2 deficit to defeat the Spurs—showing that youth can triumph over experience—ultimately becoming the second-youngest team to reach the NBA Finals.
And they held home-court advantage in the Finals against LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and the Heat.
Yet, that is the crux of the matter—Miami featured generational talents in their prime. The MVP accolades for Durant, Westbrook, and Harden were still on the horizon. Expecting them to overcome Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan in the playoffs, followed by the Heat Big 3 for the championship, was rather ambitious.
Years later, their coach, Scott Brooks, reflected: “It would have been different had we all been in their prime, but they were just too young.”
Conversely, Shai’s rapid rise in the past two years provides this trio with a significant advantage over their 2012 counterparts. At 26, he’s fully developed, backed by Williams (24), who made a substantial leap in the Western Conference finals, and Holmgren (23), who has transformed into a reliable two-way asset.
Additionally, the Pacers lack the Hall of Fame firepower that the Heat had in 2012.
Immediately after 2012, a disagreement over an extension with Harden led to a sign-and-trade with the Rockets, diminishing OKC to a Big 2.
This was prompted by three key factors:
1. They extended Serge Ibaka before Harden. Ibaka was a solid defensive player who provided balance to the scoring Big 3, but the Thunder were suddenly in a financial bind with Harden, as large extensions were reserved for Durant and Westbrook.
2. Ownership hesitated on Harden’s extension (he sought a $60 million max contract, which was substantial at the time), likely questioning if a sixth man coming off a poor Finals performance merited that investment.
3. The decision to trade Harden to Houston for a package including Kevin Martin (the centerpiece), Jeremy Lamb, and draft picks. The old adage holds true — any trade involving a package for one player typically favors the team acquiring that player. However, not many foresaw Harden becoming an MVP-caliber and prolific scorer—much like few anticipated Shai’s emergence after he was acquired from the Clippers. So it balanced out.
Rumors are already surfacing about OKC facing challenges in retaining Shai, Williams, and Holmgren. However, all three are under contract for at least the next two years, extending any potential issues down the line.
In any case, with OKC positioned to offer Shai a super max contract this summer or next (for a tenure of four or five years, depending on his decision), it’s improbable that he will turn down generational wealth exceeding $300 million. The same applies to the other two, who have yet to negotiate their rookie extensions.
Moreover, OKC retains Alex Caruso for another four years and Isaiah Hartenstein for two. Thus, the prominent concern is OKC’s preparedness to incur luxury tax expenses—a non-issue for the foreseeable future—while also keeping Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and others in the mix. This is a consideration for years ahead, and with the media rights deals and anticipated expansion inflating the salary cap, financial resources will be plentiful.
Additionally, with several first-round picks on the horizon, OKC can replenish itself with cost-effective talent on rookie contracts while investing in its Big 3.
Lastly, Shai, Holmgren, and Williams genuinely enjoy playing together. If they succeed in securing titles, it’s hard to envision one or more of them opting out.
The unpredictable variable remains—what if one or more members of the current Big 3 suffer injuries?
OKC was surprisingly able to manage Harden’s departure better than anticipated because Durant and Westbrook quickly ramped up their performance. However, Westbrook encountered a knee injury during the 2013 playoffs, and Durant dealt with foot problems and surgery in 2014-15. That eliminated two prime opportunities for OKC to vie for a title.
Beyond financial issues and the possibility of a performance regression, the second most significant threat to OKC’s goal of challenging for multiple championships is maintaining player health.
What about the most significant risk? It aligns with what derailed the previous Big 3’s chances at a title…
OKC GM Sam Presti has built a roster filled with young players who prioritize team success over personal accolades.
The Warriors were the formidable force that ultimately took down OKC, with Klay Thompson delivering a decisive blow with the Klay Game in 2016, enabling Golden State to overcome a 3-1 deficit, send OKC packing, and persuade Durant to join them that summer.
Right now, the current OKC Big 3 relishes their position atop the NBA after an impressive 68-win season and smooth playoff journey thus far.
However, how soon before contenders like the Spurs begin their transformation into true powerhouses? Or the Mavericks, once they regain health and, should their projected No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg, adapt effectively? Or a significant trade shifts the balance in favor of another team?
But those are concerns for another day.
For now, it’s all about the present. And things are looking up for OKC, starting Thursday in Game 1 (8:30 ET, ABC).
“Like any experience we’ve faced, I believe we’ve learned from them and figured out how to improve for the next challenge we encounter,” stated Holmgren. “This is just one facet of the playoffs, another opportunity to optimize our performance, and that’s precisely what we’re aiming to do.”
Flashback to 2012, Shai was merely a 13-year-old in Canada, lacking the exceptional skills that differentiated him from other seventh-graders. Williams was just 11, playing pickup games with his little brother, Cody, long before both entered the NBA, with Cody now part of the Jazz. Holmgren was 10 and a few years away from a growth spurt.
No one back then could foresee the journey that would lead all three to beat the odds, reach the NBA, and converge on OKC, providing the Thunder with a second opportunity at forming a Big 3. Most teams take decades to cultivate such trio dynamics.
The first version put Oklahoma City on the basketball map. Yet, it never captured the national imagination.
Scott Brooks remarked: “We were winning at a high level… you assume it’s going to last forever and that we’ll all return. It didn’t turn out that way.”
Perhaps this time, it will.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for over 25 years. You can reach him via email, explore his archive, and follow him on X.
The perspectives in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its franchises, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
