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Welcome to the NBA Finals DFS slate for Thursday! I want to extend my gratitude to all who have followed along in what I hope has been a rewarding season. There’s still time to cash in on more, but before we wrap things up, I want to acknowledge some key players.
As we head into Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals (8:30 ET, ABC), remember to stay alert for lineup updates and consider late swaps. This is the simplest strategy to gain an edge and maximize your winnings. It’s all about making informed choices and selecting the right opportunities, which is exactly why I’m here. Let’s dive into the top recommendations for this slate.
**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G – OKC)**
Tonight, I won’t need to elaborate much about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—he’s essentially a must-have, projected to be rostered by 80% of participants. My confidence in him tonight surpasses that of Tyrese Haliburton, who I’m not so high on for this matchup.
The alternative guard choices aside from Gilgeous-Alexander are less enticing. Haliburton struggled in previous encounters against Oklahoma City this year, and I expect the Thunder’s athletic defenders to put considerable pressure on him tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander could even be around 50% in the Captain spot. If you’re entering a large GPP, consider different strategies, but without a doubt, SGA is the standout choice.
**Chet Holmgren (F, C – OKC)**
Chet Holmgren seems to be in a steady groove this postseason, and a breakout game could be imminent. In the series finale against Minnesota, he dazzled, scoring over 37 DraftKings points in each of the last two contests.
It will be intriguing to see how Indiana defends against the Thunder’s big men, as Holmgren is likely to encounter advantageous matchups throughout the game. If the Pacers concentrate on containing Gilgeous-Alexander, it could create additional opportunities for Holmgren. The Thunder’s bigs will see considerable roster percentages, but opting for a player other than Gilgeous-Alexander in your Captain spot could provide valuable leverage tonight.
**Aaron Nesmith (SG, SF – IND)**
While I’m not thrilled about Aaron Nesmith’s high price, I do appreciate that his low projection for ownership belies his potential upside. If Indiana hopes to stay competitive, they will need a strong three-point performance. The Thunder have allowed the lowest shooting percentage at the rim and the third-lowest for two-point attempts this season.
However, they also concede the third-most attempts from beyond the arc, so if Nesmith can sink his shots, he has the potential for DFS success. I envision a comeback scenario reminiscent of his impressive eight-of-nine three-point shooting performance against New York. Although it’s a tall order, I’m not overly worried about the number of attempts. I anticipate Nesmith matching up against Gilgeous-Alexander, which means he’ll need to avoid foul trouble—a difficult task. But if he manages that, he should have plenty of opportunities, making him worth considering.
**Isaiah Joe (G – OKC)**
First on my list of value picks is Isaiah Joe. I expect Game 1 to potentially be a rout as Indiana gets to grips with Oklahoma City’s style, leading to increased playing time for Joe. If the Thunder jump out to a significant early lead, he could see up to 15 minutes of action, which seems more probable than a tightly contested game.
In blowout scenarios, we’ve witnessed Joe exceed 20 fantasy points, which would yield a terrific return on investment. Any contribution in the double digits would also be much appreciated.
**Kenrich Williams (C, F – OKC)**
Next up on my list of budget-friendly options is Kenrich Williams. When he’s on the floor, he commands a nearly 16% usage rate and offers defensive versatility, which might lead to extended minutes to enhance matchup flexibility for the Thunder.
Numerous undervalued players might stand out tonight, especially strong defenders who get more playing time, similar to Alex Caruso and Lu Dort. Aaron Wiggins also stands out as a solid value option at a bargain price. If you’re entering multiple lineups and looking to stand out, these lower-owned value plays make it easy to mix and match.
**Obi Toppin (F – IND)**
Finally, I’m interested in Obi Toppin as a lower-ownership option from Indiana. He has the ability to score from various ranges and, while not the most reliable perimeter shooter, he can still make shots. I expect most of the Thunder’s defensive focus to be on Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner tonight, which is why they haven’t been featured here as I’m avoiding them across the board.
Should those two struggle, Toppin will find himself with open paths to the basket and shooting opportunities. Despite the Thunder’s prowess, someone from Indiana needs to score; they’re projected for around 110 points. Therefore, don’t completely neglect the Pacers in your DFS lineups. Especially if you’re searching for leverage plays, swapping any Thunder player for an Indiana option could give you an edge.
