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**OKLAHOMA CITY** – Every statistic concerning Game 7 of the NBA Finals appears to have a corresponding statistic that tells a different story.
Take, for instance, the significant edge that home teams have enjoyed in the previous 19 finals. This bodes well for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are set to face the Indiana Pacers at Paycom Center on Sunday evening (8 ET, ABC) in the deciding game of this best-of-seven series.
Conversely, every road team that has celebrated with champagne in a visitor’s locker room has hailed from the Eastern Conference (the 1969 and 1974 Celtics, the 1978 Bullets, and the 2016 Cavaliers).
There’s also an interesting trend: the last three Finals that have gone to Game 7 were won by teams that entered those games trailing 3-2. The Cavaliers achieved this feat nine years ago, becoming the first team to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, while the Heat did so in 2013, alongside the Lakers in 2010 during the old 2-3-2 format.
This offers the Pacers a glimmer of hope as they conclude their remarkable playoff journey. As the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference two months ago, they will require every bit of courage to dethrone the Thunder, who finished the regular season as the league’s top team with a record of 68-14.
Naturally, both teams would have preferred a decisive series victory with an earlier celebration, but the honor of competing in a Game 7, a setting ripe with unforgettable moments in NBA history, is not lost on the players or coaches.
“It’s an honor for anyone involved in this game,” remarked OKC coach Mark Daigneault on Saturday. “We’re going to relish this opportunity. We’ll give it our all and play to our strengths.”
Jalen Williams of the Thunder expressed the sentiment in a slightly different way: “You can feel the excitement building.”
The mutual respect cultivated throughout the six fiercely fought games, characterized by minimal animosity, was evident during the final round of media availability.
A statement from Indiana guard Tyrese Haliburton encapsulated the spirit of the series, regardless of team allegiance: “There’s no other group I’d rather battle alongside.”
In both style and substance, the Pacers and Thunder share several similarities. As smaller-market franchises pursuing their first championships, both teams are guided by All-NBA point guards and supported by young, deep, and tightly-knit rosters, each excelling on defense and adept at scoring from both starters and bench players, all while being coached by two of the league’s most respected figures.
Daigneault noted, “Both teams have heavily relied on intangibles to reach this stage. Their collective effectiveness surpasses their individual components. It’s a match-up of two highly competitive teams that play well together and depend on similar factors for their success.”
As the Thunder and Pacers gear up to conclude the 2024-25 season with the ultimate 48 minutes, here are four key elements to watch for:
Wait—did we just mention “48 minutes”? It wouldn’t be surprising if the championship is decided after 53 minutes or more.
Historically, over the previous 19 Game 7s, two have gone into overtime. Notably, in 1957, the Celtics needed two extra periods to defeat the St. Louis Hawks, 125-123. Five years later, they outlasted the Lakers 110-107 in single overtime, marking one of six instances in the 1960s where Bill Russell’s teams dealt Finals defeats to legends Jerry West and Elgin Baylor.
The average victory margin in Game 7 of the Finals stands at 6.9 points, the narrowest of all Finals games, with the past six Game 7s being decided by seven points or fewer.
Remarkably, throughout the first six games of this series, the Thunder have edged the Pacers 662-655, resulting in an average victory margin of just 1.16 points per game. A decisive finale would certainly be out of character.
Playoff series shift based on game-to-game, half-to-half, and even possession-to-possession modifications. Yet, after 24 quarters, over 1,300 points, and 500 rebounds, one might assume both teams have exhausted their tactical options, indicating that Game 7 will simply hinge on execution or which player catches fire.
Not so, it seems.
“Oh, there are definitely more adjustments that can be made,” Indiana’s Rick Carlisle indicated. “We’ll find out.”
During Game 6, Carlisle’s squad implemented a clever tweak. Known for their relentless pace and tenacity on both ends, the Pacers surprisingly slowed their tempo in a move that fueled their 108-91 win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Their unique defensive adjustment involved Haliburton rotating up from the dunker spot or corner against the pick-and-pop when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams were positioned for an outlet pass.
The Thunder struggled to adapt to this shift, as guard Alex Caruso pointed out: “We just didn’t adjust well enough to that and didn’t trust our previous game plan. We’ve seen every defensive strategy out there, whether applied against Shai, Williams, or the team as a whole.”
Caruso continued, “Teams play aggressively, some opt for softness, others use zone defenses, traps, or simply plug gaps. We prepare for all styles, but it’s essential to recognize which approach to exploit effectively.”
Daigneault certainly has a trick or two up his sleeve, as long as it doesn’t lead to overthinking by his players at a crucial moment in the game.
“You want to absorb the lessons and incorporate the game plan, but not at the cost of aggression, confidence, and instincts,” he explained.
With Indiana featuring as many as eight players surpassing 200 points throughout the playoffs—a first in NBA history—they have a wealth of options ready to contribute, shoulder the load, or drive the team toward victory. Obi Toppin and Bennedict Mathurin have already stepped up at various points during the series and could again bolster the starters’ efforts.
Veteran guard T.J. McConnell also stands ready to make an impact. At 33 years old, the Pittsburgh native made Finals history in Game 3, becoming the first bench player with 10 points, five assists, and five steals in a Finals game. Now, with a final game ahead, he remains the sole reserve to reach at least 60 points, 25 assists, and 15 rebounds in a Finals series.
Carlisle even drew parallels to J.J. Barea, the journeyman guard who was pivotal in helping the 2011 Dallas Mavericks upset LeBron James’ Miami Heat.
“I see similarities,” Carlisle stated, recalling his time coaching that Mavericks team.
McConnell’s true value extends beyond stats—his hustle, elusiveness within close proximity to the basket, and adeptness at altering his direction to intercept passes stand out.
For the Thunder, guards Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace are versatile players likely to start on many NBA rosters. Isaiah Joe poses a sporadic threat from beyond the arc, while Caruso serves as a dual-threat who could mirror McConnell’s efforts for Oklahoma City, having scored 20 points twice during the series and registered 14 steals.
The NBA has come a long way since the days when big men like Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Hakeem Olajuwon, or Tim Duncan played crucial roles in deciding Game 7 outcomes. Centers were named Finals MVP eight times in the initial 17 years (1969-1985), but only once in the past 19 years (Nikola Jokić, 2023).
Neither Oklahoma City nor Indiana’s big men have been expected to dominate. However, they have largely underperformed compared to their regular-season metrics.
For the Thunder, Chet Holmgren is shooting just 35% and is a mere 2-of-17 from three-point range, down from an impressive 49% overall and 38% from deep during the season. Isaiah Hartenstein has seen his minutes reduced to 19.2 per game, halving his usual double-double production.
On the Pacers’ side, Myles Turner, known for extending opposing bigs out of their defensive comfort zones, has struggled with just five makes on 25 three-point attempts and is shooting 36.8% overall. Previously, Turner had a playoff shooting percentage of 51.2%, with 40.1% from three-point range in 56 playoff games prior to this Finals showdown.
Regardless, both coaches remain optimistic about their bigs’ potential contributions in the decisive match. Defensively, they have certainly upheld their usual performance levels.
“We’ve had stretches against Holmgren that have posed challenges for us,” Carlisle remarked.
Daigneault offered insight into how Finals teams often disrupt key elements their opponents relied upon from November to April.
“No regular season segment includes facing a great team seven times in a row, causing top players and teams to fluctuate in performance,” the OKC coach explained. “It’s quite challenging to maintain the same level of play repeatedly, which contributes to the fluctuations in results, as well as explaining why certain players have standout nights followed by quieter performances.”
Regardless of individual roles and outputs, one thing is clear for Game 7: it’s sure to be anything but uneventful.
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Steve Aschburner has been covering the NBA since 1980. You can e-mail him, explore his archive, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
