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Now that we’re in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat
Game 1 turned out to provide a pretty clear picture of where these teams sit in terms of quality. Neither team shot well from deep, with Miami regressing to 33.3% on 3-pointers and Denver doing even worse at 29.6%. Miami’s regression was expected after a scorching round against Boston. Denver’s shooting tends to be quite good, though on low-volume, meaning they aren’t as dependent on variance. The Bucks and Celtics, on the other hand, both ranked in the top four in the NBA in 3-point attempts. When they have bad shooting luck, they lose. When the Nuggets do? They win by 10 instead of 25. The Pick: Nuggets -8.5
Aside from a bit of positive shooting regression, we should also expect a few more points for Miami in Game 2 at the line. The Heat attempted at only two free throws in Game 1, and the two teams combined to take roughly 33 fewer free throws than their regular-season average. Couple those realities with a relatively meager point total, and this game should be a bit more offensively focused than Game 1 was. The Pick: Over 216
The books have sadly taken down some of the props on Miami’s role players (I was prepared to bet the under on Caleb Martin’s scoring into oblivion), but we’ll persevere with Denver’s. Aaron Gordon scored 12 points in the first quarter of Game 1 largely through lazy switches and valuable…
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Author : Sam Quinn
Publish date : 2023-06-04 13:49:54
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