The Milwaukee Bucks Are Putting Together A Sneaky Good Offseason

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 30: Damian Lillard #0 and Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee … [+] Bucks look on during the second half against the Miami Heat at Fiserv Forum on October 30, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

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Many people will chalk up the Milwaukee Bucks’ second-straight premature playoff exit to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s injury, which kept him out for the entirety of their first round series against the Indiana Pacers.

However, the Bucks weren’t destined for a deep playoff run anyway, as they were a deeply flawed team. Yes, their top four — comprised of Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Khris Middleton — is as venerable as you’ll get under the modern collective bargaining agreement (CBA). But they lacked the requisite role players to properly blend the skills of their core four together, and heading into this offseason, they didn’t project to have the resources to address this concern.

In his Bucks offseason preview, Spotrac Cap Expert Keith Smith did a great job of summarizing this debacle in his introduction:

“The Milwaukee Bucks fell short of expectations last season. Injuries were a major part of that, but the roster never quite came together as realized. This offseason is about rest, recovery and adding depth around an older, injury-prone core. That sounds simple enough, but actually pulling it off is going to be a chore. The Bucks don’t have a lot of tools to work with to find that depth. They are a first-apron team entering the offseason, but are functionally a second-apron team…That means the Bucks are down to trades (but without aggregating salaries on the outward-bound side and with only 100% salary-matching), re-signing their own free agents, signing their draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.”

You heard that correctly. No cap space, no aggregating salaries for trades, no Non-Taxpayer/Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception, no Bi-Annual Exception, none of that. Yet they needed to find a way to squeeze the most out of their aging team, and as the title of this article suggests, the Bucks managed to do just that.

Getting Younger

Their rock-solid offseason all started with the 2024 NBA Draft, where the Bucks added AJ Johnson and Tyler Smith with the 23rd and 33rd overall picks, respectively. The two rookies are still raw, so their chances of contributing right away are slim. However, given both of them will still be 19 at the start of the season, they do help decrease the team’s average age.

If they are ready to help immediately, Johnson offers some relief for Lillard off the bench, and Smith theoretically gives the Bucks the exact type of player they desperately need (more on this in a moment).

Adding Depth

So far, the Bucks have signed three players to veteran minimum contracts. Two of those gentlemen were Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr.

There is a reason the Bucks were able to land these two guys for cheap. They are both flawed one-way players. Wright excels on defense (Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of +0.2, per Dunks & Threes) but struggles on offense (Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus of -1.8). Meanwhile, Trent is the inverse — a good offensive player (OFF EPM of +0.1) who is prone to some defensive lapses (DEF EPM of -0.2).

Still, one-way players who are housed in a strong infrastructure (like the one the Bucks core four creates) tend to be very valuable in the regular season, as they won’t get targeted the way they would in the playoffs. So, the Bucks can reap the benefits these two have to offer without having their weaknesses broadcasted globally.

Wright can provide backup minutes at the one or play alongside Lillard in the backcourt to compensate for Dame Time’s defensive limitations (Lillard has finished in the 31st percentile or lower in DEF EPM in nine of his twelve NBA seasons).

Trent is a cheaper replacement to Malik Beasley (whose average annual value on the Detroit Pistons is over twice as high as Trent’s contract with the Bucks) — a great shooter who isn’t afraid to let it fly from downtown (88th percentile in 3-point attempts per 75 possessions). Plus, despite being a below-average defender, Trent is great at defensive playmaking (77th percentile steal rate), which should provide a nice boost to a Bucks team that finished 30th in opponent turnover rate last season.

(Sidebar #1: In a recent article, I created a formula for estimating a player’s production value. Based on that equation, Trent’s deal is currently the “best” one that has been signed up to this point in the offseason.)

Best Contracts of 2024 Offseason.

Dunks & Threes/Spotrac.

Something They Desperately Needed Last Season

A big reason I was lower on the Bucks’ title chances throughout the season is that they lacked a two-way wing/forward who could space the floor on offense and defend the perimeter on defense. Guys like Pat Connaughton and A.J. Green were good on offense, but they were out of their jurisdiction trying to anchor the point-of-attack in the absence of Jrue Holiday. And while MarJon Beauchamp and Andre Jackson Jr. were sound on-ball defenders, they weren’t good enough offensive players for defenses to respect their capabilities.

That brings us to the third veteran minimum signing of this offseason: Taurean Prince. Prince is far from an elite “3-and-D” wing/forward, but he is as good as you will get at three million dollars a year in 2024-25.

Some statistics that are good to look at when analyzing this type of player are 3-year wide-open 3-point percentage, 3-year wide-open 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, true shooting on drives, drives per 36 minutes, DEF EPM, steal rate, and block rate. For Prince, here is the percentile he falls in for all these categories:

Taurean Prince 2023-24 Stats.

Thinking Basketball/Dunks & Threes/Cleaning the Glass.

By these marks, Prince is an average/above-average spacer (a big step up from what Beauchamp and Jackson were). He doesn’t drive much, but when he does, he’s relatively efficient (which should be helpful for attacking closeouts). And he’s an above average defender who doesn’t create a ton of steals like Trent, but does give you positional rim protection (62nd percentile among wings in block rate, per Cleaning the Glass). Remember, rim protection is the most important ingredient to a great defense.

All told, Prince is the kind of player you need in the playoffs, and he projects as the perfect fifth guy to close games alongside Lillard, Middleton, Antetounkmpo, and Lopez.

Room For Internal Improvement

Along with the two incoming rookies, the Bucks have a trio of youngsters in Beauchamp (23), Jackson (22), and Green (24). As we’ve already highlighted, all of them are flawed in their own ways. But if one (or more) of them takes a leap next season, it could be a massive boost for the Bucks’ title aspirations.

In my eyes, the number one candidate for this type of improvement is Jackson. Not only is he the youngest cat in the litter, he also had the best showing in the playoffs — playing 12 minutes per game and posting a team-high net rating of +10.9. Jackson has great tools and some underrated passing chops. For him, it’s just about becoming a more lethal volume shooter (18th percentile in 3-point attempts per 75). If that happens, that gives the Bucks another two-way wing/forward outside of Prince that they can lean on.

The Bucks may not be done making moves yet this offseason (they could still use a backup center). But based on what the ones they have made, they have done a great job of getting younger and addressing some of the weaknesses that persisted on last year’s iteration of the team.

To me, they are still lagging behind the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Conference (mainly because of age and injury concerns), but these moves certainly put them in a better position to usurp these juggernauts than they were in at the start of the offseason.

Source link : https://www.forbes.com/sites/matissa/2024/07/17/the-milwaukee-bucks-are-putting-together-a-sneaky-good-offseason/

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Publish date : 2024-07-17 15:30:39

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