The truth about Paolo Banchero and his 50-point night: Orlando has a superstar in the making

There’s the eye test, and there’s the numbers, and in between, there’s a whole lot of argument.

It’s a common tale, in the NBA and elsewhere: A player looks the part of a bona fide star, and maybe even produces admirably in certain statistical categories, but lagging performance in other, more holistic and perhaps finer-tuned metrics leaves open the question of just how much that player “contributes to” or “drives” winning. (“If he’s a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”)

That, to some degree, has been the rap on Paolo Banchero through two pro seasons that traced a very familiar path on the star map. No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA draft. Instant-offense 20-point scorer and no-doubt-about-it selection as Rookie of the Year. Across-the-board offensive upticks in his sophomore season, resulting in an All-Star nod and his first playoff appearance, driving the Orlando Magic back to the postseason after a three-year drought.

But as impressive as the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Duke product’s raw production was, his means of arriving at it — midrange and 3-point jumpers accounting for more than 60% of his field goal attempts, despite him making fewer than 40% of them — earned Banchero that most divisive of tags among players vying for modern stardom: inefficient.

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The Magic finished bottom-10 in points scored per possession in Banchero’s first two seasons despite his bucket-getting, and actually scored more effectively with him off the floor last season. Among 65 qualifying players to use at least 25% of their teams’ offensive possessions over the past two seasons, Banchero was tied for 62nd in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for 3-pointers being worth more than 2-pointers. (Right alongside him? Russell Westbrook.) That goes a long way toward explaining why so many advanced metrics — estimated plus-minus, LEBRON, DARKO, value over replacement player, win shares per 48 minutes, you name it — have pegged Paolo more as “pretty OK” than “premier operator,” despite box-score stat lines that put him on par with the likes…

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Author : Yahoo Sports

Publish date : 2024-10-29 16:40:00

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