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The Denver Nuggets have changed significantly since they clinched the NBA championship two years ago, having let go of three key rotational players to free agency over the past two offseasons. Nevertheless, they still pose a threat as title contenders, largely due to their star player who is possibly enjoying the finest season of his career.
With just 16 games left in the season, the Nuggets sit in third place in the Western Conference, tied with the second-ranked Memphis Grizzlies (whom they’ll meet in the closing week) at a record of 42-24.
Nikola Jokić provides the Nuggets with the ability to compete against any team in the league. However, they have revealed certain weaknesses, particularly when facing other strong teams.
Here’s a look at some insights, statistics, and highlights concerning the Nuggets as we approach the conclusion of the season…
The Nuggets rank last in the league in terms of 3-point shooting rate, making only 35.3% of their attempts from beyond the arc for the second consecutive season and by a notable margin. Although they are third in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.2%, they have been outscored from three-point range in 42 of their 66 games.
That figure ties them with the Pelicans for the most instances in the league. However, while New Orleans has a dismal 7-35 record when being outscored from deep, the Nuggets manage a record of 23-19. Only three other teams — Oklahoma City (16-5), Houston (13-11), and the Lakers (17-15) — have managed to win more games than they’ve lost when giving up more points from three-point territory. The Nuggets’ 23 victories in this scenario are six more than any other team this season and are already tied for the second most achieved over the last six years.
To counterbalance their lack of outside shooting, the Nuggets excel in scoring in the paint. They lead the league in paint scoring differential with a +8.0 points per game advantage and sit sixth in free throw differential at +1.4 points per game.
They are one of just four teams ranked in the top 10 for both free throw rate (10th) and opponent free throw rate (fifth). However, their paint differential is primarily due to their offensive prowess.
The Nuggets are the only team in the top five for both field goal percentage in the paint (60.7%, third) and the ratio of their shot attempts coming from the paint (54%, third). The New York Knicks are the only other team to make it into the top 10 in both categories.
Most of their shot attempts originate from the paint.
%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts
Nikola Jokić is leading the charge, scoring an impressive 16.7 points in the paint per game, ranking him second in the league. His unique fusion of size, agility, patience, and finesse make him a formidable force.
You can see their strategy clear during clutch moments of close games…
Jokić isn’t just a prolific paint scorer; he also averages 5.4 assists per game (second only to Trae Young) on layups and dunks, which is quite remarkable for a center.
Many of these assists occur in transition, where Jokić ranks sixth in the league with a career-high of seven hit-ahead passes per game, according to Second Spectrum. This is a major factor in Christian Braun leading the league in fast break points per game.
At his best, Jokić is a basketball savant positioned at the focal point of the court, surrounded by teammates ready to cut towards the basket…
His exceptional skills have been showcased for years, but the Nuggets have become even more entertaining this season due to his growing chemistry with another former Kia MVP.
The duo of Jokić and Russell Westbrook has recorded 200 assists to one another, which is the fourth-highest total for any pairing this season, surpassed only by two other combinations involving Jokić and the duo of Malik Monk and Domantas Sabonis from the Kings. However, Jokić and Westbrook have logged fewer minutes together than those other combinations, and their rate of 6.2 assists to one another per 36 minutes on the floor stands as the highest among the leading pairs.
Most combined assists between teammates
MIN = Minutes together
Per 36 = Assists per each 36 minutes on the court together.
A guard who pushes the pace in transition, stretches the defense, and is keen to dish out to the most effective high-volume scorer in NBA history is typically a valuable asset. Moreover, the Nuggets require all capable rotation players available.
Despite this, the team has performed worse with Westbrook on the floor (rating even) compared to with him off (rating minus-8.9). They’ve fared significantly better with Jokić on the floor while Westbrook sits, compared to when both are on the court together.
Nuggets with Jokić or Westbrook on the floor
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
This season, the Nuggets have allowed 114.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking 21st and an increase from last season’s 112.3 per 100 (eighth). Only the Pelicans, Sixers, and Suns have experienced a larger defensive downturn.
In relation to their dominance in the paint, the Nuggets have seen a considerable decline in the percentage of shots their opponents take from that area, which is generally favorable as paints shots yield higher points than outside attempts.
However, their opponents have been more effective both in the paint and from outside compared to last season…
Nuggets’ opponent shooting, past two seasons
Paint% = Percentage of shots taken in the paint
3PA% = Percentage of shots taken from 3-point range
With a significant uptick in the proportion of their opponents’ shots from three-point range, the Nuggets have also witnessed a marked increase in the share of those attempts originating from the corners. They’ve already allowed more corner 3-pointers (264, averaging four per game — the seventh highest) than they did all of last season (234, averaging 2.9 — the third fewest).
According to Second Spectrum, the Nuggets continue to showcase one of the most aggressive approaches in defending against pick-and-roll plays, applying “blitz” or “show” coverage on 17% of their opponent’s ball screens, which ranks third in the league and up from 13% (fifth highest) the previous season.
Aggressive pick-and-roll defense can frequently lead to open 3s on the weak side.
During the late third quarter of Wednesday’s game, Jokić was positioned at the 3-point line while executing a handoff for Anthony Edwards. Simultaneously, Jalen Pickett was deep in the paint, covering Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the left corner, ready to defend the rim should Rudy Gobert roll towards the basket.
The outcome was an open, well-timed three-pointer for Alexander-Walker…
The league averages 3.7 made corner threes (per team) each game. The Nuggets have permitted four or more in each of their last 14 games.
Overall, the defense has emerged as a pressing concern as the Nuggets have struggled against the top teams in the league.
As of Thursday, 11 teams are at least nine games over .500, while the Nuggets stand at 5-15 (with only the Bucks faring worse) in matchups against these elite 11 teams. Before their win against Oklahoma City on Monday, they had endured a streak of 10 consecutive losses (with their last victory occurring on December 3) within this competitive group.
Throughout that ten-game losing stretch among the top 11 teams, the Nuggets allowed an astounding 126 points per 100 possessions. Their opponents shot 60.6% in the paint and 41.8% from beyond the arc, additionally hitting 46.9% of their corner threes.
Even during their win against Oklahoma City on Monday (boosting them to the league’s best record of 12-1 in the second games of back-to-backs), the Nuggets allowed the Thunder to score 127 points over 99 possessions (128.3 per 100). They triumphed by having the most efficient game (by a wide margin) against the top-ranked defense in the league.
The Nuggets are currently embroiled in a close competition for playoff positioning in the Western Conference and could finish anywhere from second to sixth place. With 16 games remaining, nine of these matchups will be against teams in that competitive top 11, including two against Indiana and Sacramento, both with winning records.
Thus, the team (and its defense) will face considerable challenges from now until April 13.
The nine games against top-11 teams include two matchups against the Lakers within the next six days, starting with their first game in Denver this Friday (9:30 p.m. ET, NBA TV).
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior statistics analyst for NBA.com. You can reach him via email here, access his archives here, and follow him on X.
The views expressed on this page may not reflect the opinions of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
