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Welcome to the NBA DFS slate for Thursday! I hope your week has been profitable, and that you’re enjoying the fantastic season as we approach playoff time. It’s been a terrific year thus far, and I’m excited to continue this journey with all of you.
For those participating in NBA DFS, it’s vital to keep an eye on lineup updates and be ready for late swaps; doing so can put you ahead of the competition and improve your chances of cashing in. Tonight’s slate features either six or eight games, depending on your preferred platform. The key lies in making well-informed choices and knowing when to target particular players. Let’s dive into the standout options for tonight.
**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)**
Who better to kick off this analysis than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? With the game’s total hovering around 240, Gilgeous-Alexander is on track for a significant usage rate approaching 40%. That’s already a promising start.
Since the All-Star Break, Memphis has struggled defensively, placing them among the bottom 10 teams, and they maintain a top-five pace in the league. It’s safe to say that 50 DraftKings points feels like the baseline for him, given his ability to surpass 70 points as well.
**Donovan Mitchell (PG, SG – CLE)**
I apologize for focusing on multiple point guards, but Donovan Mitchell is in too favorable a situation to overlook. Not to be confused with Davion Mitchell, who also offers great value, Donovan is projected for around 45 fantasy points, with a notably higher upside.
The Spurs’ defense ranks as the second weakest in the league over the past 20 games, and both teams are among the fastest-paced in the league. After two subpar performances and some rest for injury management, I’m eager to invest in Mitchell tonight, especially as his usage will likely rise on a shorthanded Cavs team. His current usage rate is above 31%, making him an excellent choice.
**Bam Adebayo (PF, C – MIA)**
Miami will likely have high ownership today, and I’ll be leading with Bam Adebayo. Atlanta plays at a top-five pace but struggles defensively, ranking in the bottom 10. Adebayo is expected to log about 34 minutes with a usage rate around 25%.
Although he may be popular, his potential for exceeding 60 points at a mid-$8,000 cost makes him a tremendous value. Even if we conservatively project him for around 43 DraftKings points, he remains a strong play tonight.
**Jarrett Allen (C, PF – CLE)**
With Evan Mobley sidelined, Jarrett Allen will see a significant boost in his offensive efficiency and overall output. In the previous two games without Mobley, Allen’s minutes surged past 30, and his usage rate should hover around 20%. Cleveland also faces one of the most favorable matchups available right now.
The Spurs’ defense is the second-worst since the All-Star break, providing Cleveland with a prime opportunity. San Antonio has allowed the eighth-highest fantasy points to opposing centers over the last 15 games.
**Paolo Banchero (PF, SF – ORL)**
Despite a lower expected total around 218, Paolo Banchero has a solid base with a 33% usage rate in this up-tempo matchup against the seventh-fastest Dallas Mavericks. With no clear defensive threat from Dallas, which ranks 26th post-All-Star break, Banchero’s prospects look promising.
Following a recent performance where he scored 50 fantasy points, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him replicate that tonight. For those seeking a less expensive Magic player, Franz Wagner could be a viable option.
**Tyler Herro (PG – MIA)**
Tyler Herro is projected for around 43 fantasy points tonight in this pace-increasing game against Atlanta. While Miami is set to have high ownership, he could serve as an intriguing option in smaller GPPs.
Herro tends to be less reliable for cash game scenarios, but given the favorable matchup, I feel confident recommending him.
**Chet Holmgren (PF, C – OKC)**
Chet Holmgren is notably under the radar, with future ownership projections only around 10-12% across various slates, which feels disproportionately low against Memphis. The Grizzlies have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in their last 30 games, and I anticipate struggles for them against the Thunder’s frontcourt.
When starting, Holmgren typically logs about 32 minutes and could benefit from substantial scoring opportunities tonight. With the potential to score over 50 DraftKings points and his low projected ownership, he’s an appealing choice with dual eligibility as a forward and center.
**Tyrese Haliburton (PG – IND)**
Tyrese Haliburton’s pricing is elevated due to the favorable matchup against the Wizards. There seems to be a shift in ownership away from him on the slate. At a glance, Haliburton averages around 42 fantasy points per game at the elevated price of $8,700 on DraftKings; however, he has recently averaged 50 fantasy points over the last three matches.
The opportunity for a breakout game is significant against a team allowing the most fantasy points to opponents this season and ranking third in points permitted to opposing point guards. This game could conclude early, allowing Haliburton to exceed 40 DraftKings points tonight. His projected ownership at around 10-12% suggests that his boom potential could be underestimated.
**Dyson Daniels (PG, SG – ATL)**
Dyson Daniels is a hidden gem on DraftKings, with projected ownership around 13-15%. I believe that number may dip further with pending injury updates, as many players will gravitate towards star-studded lineups at the expense of players like Daniels, priced in the $7,000 range.
In his last game, Daniels showcased his ceiling potential with a 54-point DraftKings performance, and his price has since decreased. As a viable option to counter Miami’s less-than-stellar defense, I wouldn’t hesitate to include Daniels in several GPP entries.
**AJ Johnson (PG, SG – WSH)**
Although I typically shy away from options from the Washington Wizards, AJ Johnson presents a rare opportunity. Pending injury updates suggest he may start once more. He has averaged over 28 minutes in his last four games, pushing closer to 30 in the last three.
He posted over 30 DraftKings points in one of those matchups and has a shot at repeating that feat again tonight. Johnson holds a decent usage rate against a favorable DFS matchup in Indiana.
**Bismack Biyombo (C – SAS)**
Sometimes a straightforward approach using simple game theory or basic comparisons is better than delving deep into player matchups. Noticing DraftKings and FanDuel price discrepancies can signal a mispricing.
Bismack Biyombo has logged 24+ minutes in his last two games. Facing a Cleveland squad missing Evan Mobley can substantially enhance his chances of achieving a ceiling performance.
**De’Andre Hunter (SF, PF – CLE)**
If De’Andre Hunter steps in to replace Evan Mobley in the starting lineup, he’s set to be a high-value, heavily-owned option. Given the size of the spread, Hunter could exploit the inadequacies of the Spurs’ defense while expected to play around 30 minutes.
At a price point below $5,000 with around a 20% usage rate, Hunter stands out as one of the top plays on tonight’s slate, pending confirmation of his starting role.
