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The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off an impressive season and are set for a significant playoff journey. Based on their performance over the past six months, they appear to be a formidable No. 1 seed, and it would indeed be a major surprise if they do not advance into May.
Regarding the Memphis Grizzlies, a standard No. 8 seed doesn’t typically secure 48 victories while averaging points only behind one other team in the league. Memphis possesses considerable talent, accompanied by the constant threat of a breakout game from Ja Morant. At a previous point in the season, they held the second position in the Western Conference, but they later struggled in a highly competitive landscape, leading to the dismissal of coach Taylor Jenkins due to the heightened expectations placed upon them.
Here’s how to tune into the Thunder vs. Grizzlies series:
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The GameTime team evaluates the prospects of the Thunder winning the NBA championship.
Weren’t the Grizzlies envisioned as the Thunder a few years back? Memphis was then regarded as a rising powerhouse, boasting a high seed and the potential for long-term contention. Morant was seen as the league’s most exhilarating player, while Jaren Jackson Jr. had earned the Kia Defensive Player of the Year title, with solid support around them. Then, circumstances changed—mainly due to Ja’s time away from the game due to injuries and suspensions—and now, this is their current predicament.
Time is relentless, and as the Grizzlies navigated their developing phase, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder took advantage, establishing themselves in a position to be the new favorites in the West. It must be humbling for Memphis to look over at OKC and ponder what might have been.
Ja Morant’s agility is in question as he plays his third game over six nights after spraining his right ankle during the initial Play-In contest. Although he displayed signs of returning to form in their victory against Dallas, he faces a tougher challenge in trying to defend against Shai, the league’s leading scorer.
Even if the Grizzlies choose to assign Desmond Bane to guard Shai, Morant will need to elude Lu Dort—one of the league’s premier defensive guards. If Morant is healthy, he will need to be the standout guard on the floor for significant portions, if not the entire game, a feat few have managed this season while sharing the court with Shai.
For the Thunder, typically, teams will tighten their rotations in the playoffs, but this would negate one of OKC’s advantages. The Thunder have the depth to go nine or even ten players deep, creating an overwhelming force against opponents.
In this series, expect OKC to stick with their successful formula since players like Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, and Isaiah Joe are equally capable of delivering performances that will warrant their minutes. Should the Thunder secure a few blowout wins—something they have frequently done all season—it would also allow their starters to conserve energy for upcoming rounds.
For the Grizzlies, Jackson and rookie Zach Edey must prove to be a challenging matchup for Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren if Memphis hopes to inject some tension into this series. Edey already demonstrated his worth with a pair of double-doubles during the Play-In Tournament, providing interior strength to challenge Hartenstein.
Jackson, a strong perimeter defender, is critical for success, especially when Holmgren likes to operate outside. When Jackson plays aggressively on both ends, he can make a significant impact. However, his rebounding has often been a weakness, which must improve to compete against a dominant OKC team in the paint.
18-10—The Thunder recorded an 18-10 record in games where they trailed by at least 10 points this season, marking the best comeback record for any team in the 29 seasons covered by play-by-play data. In fact, only 11 other teams (none this season) have managed a winning record after being down by double digits during that span.
Oklahoma City has been the top first-quarter team over the past seven years, outscoring opponents by an impressive 17.1 points per 100 possessions during the initial 12 minutes. The 28 games in which they found themselves down by double digits were tied for the fewest in the league, alongside Boston and Cleveland. Even when they fell behind, the Thunder proved resilient, with that record including a 10-6 performance against winning teams.
The Grizzlies boasted a 42-11 record (12th best) in games where they held a double-digit lead. Their largest lead during the four games against the Thunder was a modest nine-point advantage on December 29, which quickly dissipated.
— John Schuhmann
Thunder in four. Oklahoma City, with 68 victories this season, is set not only to win four additional games, but to do so consecutively. This series appears heavily tilted in the Thunder’s favor for numerous clear reasons—strong rankings in both offense and defense, abundant size, depth, and Shai’s remarkable talents. Memphis has struggled since late January, winning just five of their final 14 games. While the Grizzlies can count on capable scoring from Ja, Jackson, and Bane, along with Edey’s strength in rebounding, it may not suffice to secure even a single win, let alone an entire series against a team that has never lost more than two consecutive games this season. Expect to see standout performances from Shai and strong defensive plays from Dort.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior statistics analyst for NBA.com. You can reach him via email here, explore his archive here, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed on this page do not necessarily represent the views of the NBA, its franchises, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
