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Here’s the consensus from our experts at NBA.com regarding the eventual champion of the NBA Finals, brought to you by YouTube TV:
• Prediction: Oklahoma City
As the 2025 NBA Finals approach, a tune from “Annie, Get Your Gun” keeps playing in my mind. I hesitate to mention it—unless we consider a modern twist featuring none other than the game’s greatest of all time. Everything the Indiana Pacers aim to achieve, the Oklahoma City Thunder can accomplish more effectively.
The Pacers boast a talented, youthful, and deep roster? The Thunder surpass them in depth, youth, and skill. The Pacers are defensive stalwarts and excel in scoring, but the Thunder have a knack for stifling opponents’ offensive plays and recorded an impressive net rating of 12.7, the second highest in league history. While the Pacers shine with All-Stars like Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, the Thunder are led by Kia MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and All-NBA standout Jalen Williams.
Both teams enjoy enthusiastic support from their fans, are guided by respected coaches, and feature closely-knit rosters. However, one achieved 68 wins while the other secured only 50. The Thunder were a staggering 29-1 against teams from the opposing conference, while the Pacers did not share this success. They operate on different levels as the playoffs open and will continue to do so until they conclude.
• Prediction: Oklahoma City
During the season, Oklahoma City never lost four games in any seven-game stretch, and the Denver Nuggets came closest to this record—only to fall to the Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals.
The Indiana Pacers have had a remarkable playoff journey, but they have yet to confront a defense as formidable as that of the Thunder. OKC led the league in defensive efficiency (106.6) and turnover rate forced (16.9%) throughout the season and has tightened up even further in the playoffs (104.7 and 17.7%, respectively). The Thunder’s strategy to send waves of defenders—such as All-Defensive Team selections Lu Dort and Jalen Williams, along with Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace—will be vital in disrupting Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers’ speedy offensive playstyle.
At the same time, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Kia MVP and scoring leader, is a driving force for OKC. Against Indiana this season, he averaged a staggering 39 points while shooting 55.6% overall, 63.3% from beyond the arc, and 91.3% from the free-throw line, leading an offense (117.1 ppg) that matches the Pacers’ scoring prowess (117.4 ppg) throughout the postseason.
• Prediction: Oklahoma City
The evidence and expertise for a championship here are overwhelming. The combination of superior defense, depth, and the rise of talents like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams means that even if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t perfect—though he often is—this team shows remarkably few weaknesses and recovers well from any occasional missteps.
I have a soft spot for underdog narratives and cherish once-in-a-lifetime moments, which makes me long for the Pacers to pull off a surprising upset, with Tyrese Haliburton delivering the final “overrated” comeback. Such a story could potentially captivate audiences even more than Norman Dale and Jimmy Chitwood’s exploits in “Hoosiers.” Yet, my judgment leads me to think that betting on the Pacers to overcome these odds seems unwise. Rely on what has been evident for months: OKC is a powerhouse on a mission.
• Prediction: Oklahoma City
There have been a couple of significant upsets in these playoffs, with the Pacers achieving the most notable one by knocking out the Cavaliers in the conference semifinals. Their continuous ball and player movement presents tough defensive challenges, and they possess competent defenders as well.
However, the Thunder are, plainly put, the premier team in basketball. Their top-ranked defense has performed exceptionally well in the playoffs, restricting the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Timberwolves to 19.6, 15.0, and 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions, respectively, compared to their regular-season averages. (Excluding the Game 3 blowout, the Timberwolves’ numbers would likely reflect a larger discrepancy.) The matchup between the Indiana offense and Oklahoma City defense could be the most intriguing one-sided matchup seen in the Finals in a long time, but the Thunder are expected to have the advantage on both sides of the court.
