2024 NBA Finals: Five bold predictions for Celtics vs. Mavericks, with tight series ending in historic upset

The 2024 NBA Finals have arrived. Game 1 is set for Thursday night. Dallas at Boston. The Celtics are the favorites, but most people, myself included, see this as more of a tossup series than that number would indicate. 

I think this goes down as a classic series. I have the Mavericks in seven, but even if it’s Celtics in six, or vice versa, these games are going down to the wire. Which, as it turns out, is actually one of my five bold predictions for this series. Here they are. Let’s get to it.

1. Luka averages 35 points per game

Only nine players have averaged at least 35 points for a single Finals: Michael Jordan (2x), Shaquille O’Neal (2x), Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jerry West, Allen Iverson and Kevin Durant. Luka will become the 10th. 

Doncic has averaged north of 35 PPG for a single playoff series just once in his career (35.7 vs. the Clippers in 2021). It’s a huge number. But Dallas is going to have to score big in this series, and any idea that Boston is uniquely equipped to defend Luka largely went out the window with what he did to Minnesota, which was also stocked with big, athletic, switchable perimeter defenders and a world-class rim protector on the back line. 

2. Finals point differential will be under 20

About one third of all NBA Finals have finished with a point differential of fewer than 20 points (24 our of 76 series). This one will become the 25th, and I believe it’s possible that the winner of this series actually loses the point differential battle, which has happened 11 times in history with the most recent being the 2012-13 Heat. That Miami team was outscored by the Spurs by five points for the series but still took home the ring, and there’s a distinct possibility that happens again this year with how close this series feels. 

Which leads us to …

3. At least six ‘clutch’ games

Clutch games are defined as being within five points at any point within the last five minutes. I predicted this series to go seven, so I’ll allow for one game to have some relative separation…

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Author : Brad Botkin

Publish date : 2024-06-05 15:12:00

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