The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
I’m going Dallas across the board in Game 1. Until I have visual evidence that Kristaps Porzingis is healthy and able to move as well as he did defensively during the regular season, I just view him as a target for Luka Doncic to hunt in pick-and-roll. Immobile big men have no chance against him, and on an injured calf, Porzingis would be a constant switch target. Boston hasn’t lost a road game yet this postseason, but the Celtics have looked surprisingly vulnerable at home, losing games to the Heat and Cavaliers and coming close in Game 1 against the Pacers. Worst-case scenario, the Mavericks haven’t lost by seven or more points since Game 1 against the Thunder. With the points, I feel relatively safe. The Pick: Mavericks +6.5
This is an over for several reasons to me. First, as we’ve covered, I expect Doncic to hunt for Porzingis and do well against him. Second, Porzingis is going to cause problems for the Dallas defense. If the Mavericks guard him with a center, he’ll just camp deep behind the 3-point line and draw their rim protectors away from the basket, and if they guard him with anyone else, he’ll kill them in the post and on mid-range jumpers. Either way, I think both teams will need a game or two to adjust defensively to the specific issues at play in this series. The Pick: Over 214.5
Both the Thunder and Timberwolves eventually came to the conclusion that the only way to stop Doncic was to trap him. Oklahoma City got there quickly. Minnesota did not. Boston is not a team that doubles especially often. They are going to go into Game 1 at least ready to try playing him one-on-one. There will be wrinkles to that, of course. Don’t be surprised if Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown wind up defending the Dallas centers so that they can essentially pre-switch onto Doncic in…
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Author : Sam Quinn
Publish date : 2024-06-06 12:13:19
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