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Brandon Knight
By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
We knew we were going to get at least one marquee series in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. You can’t have that many elite teams in the field without some of them bumping heads right off the bat. It’s simple math.
This matchup definitely qualifies. On one side, you’ve got the defending champs, about to start a high-stakes run at the Cup again. On the other is the West’s top regular-season team, with what might be the scariest top-to-bottom lineup in the league, trying to clear a path to the Stanley Cup Final. Stars-Golden Knights should be good — and it might be great.
Brandon Knight The odds
When these two teams met last year, the series looked like it would be very tight, with Vegas narrowly edging out Dallas. The Golden Knights were at 53 percent, thanks in no small part to how strong they looked in the previous two rounds — momentum they carried into a 4-2 series victory.
This time around, the script has flipped. Dallas wins this series 62 percent of the time, and it’s worth noting that’s with a fully healthy Vegas lineup on the other side. The margin may be even wider if Mark Stone and/or Alex Pietrangelo aren’t ready to go for Game 1 or aren’t at 100 percent.
This matchup may still be close, as it goes six games or longer 61 percent of the time, but the overall lean is decidedly in the Stars’ favor. That’s the price to be paid for Vegas limping into the postseason: A date with the best of the West in which the Golden Knights start as underdogs.
Brandon Knight The numbers
Dallas is one of the most well-rounded teams in the playoffs. A lot of that has to do with their five-on-five game. A 55 percent expected goals rate landed the Stars third in the league, which is thanks to their play on both ends.
The Stars are a solid offensive team with balance between their rush game and shots off the forecheck. With contributions up and down the line, Dallas ranked top 10 in expected and actual goals. Their biggest strength, though, is defense.
With just 2.26 expected goals against per 60, the Stars are one of the best teams at limiting quality chances against. Dallas doesn’t allow many rush chances against or high-danger passes, and does a great job protecting the middle of the ice. With Jake Oettinger hitting his stride, the Stars may finally have the reliable goaltending to back that up, too.
The Golden Knights are a good five-on-five team, but they don’t have the same consistency as Dallas. Vegas tends to give up more shots, but they keep them outside the net-front area and middle of the ice. A real strength is that they get out of their zone with control to lead the rush and counteract. That is going to be pivotal in this series to take some weight off their goaltenders.
Vegas can stack up relatively well at five-on-five. The question is how much better they can be with a fully healthy lineup. That hasn’t been the case post-deadline, so there is potential for that to improve — if they can cut through that Stars’ defense.
Where the Golden Knights fall short of Dallas offensively is on the power play. Vegas is pretty below-average, while the Stars thrive on the advantage. Dallas has the special-teams advantage on the penalty kill as well, which makes even-strength play all the more important for Vegas.
Brandon Knight The big question
Can Dallas’ youth movement spark a different result from last year?
These aren’t the same teams that met last spring. Aside from new additions in Dallas — namely Matt Duchene and Chris Tanev — the biggest change for the Stars is the emergence of a burgeoning young core.
Wyatt Johnston, 21, and Thomas Harley, 22, suited up for the Stars last spring, but both have seriously leveled up in the year since. Add Logan Sta
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