Does Brook Lopez Shoot Too Many Threes For The Milwaukee Bucks?

MIAMI, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 28: Brook Lopez #11 of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots over Kevin Love #42 of … [+] the Miami Heat in the second half during the NBA In-season Tournament game at Kaseya Center on November 28, 2023 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User Expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograh, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

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Brook Lopez is having one of his worst three-point shooting seasons since he arrived in Milwaukee in 2018. But when does an open three turn from a good to a bad shot in this prolific Milwaukee Bucks’ offense?

Lopez is only connecting on 32.5 percent of his outside shots, the second-lowest success rate since he evolved into a floor-spacing big man. In fact, among the 61 players who have taken at least 150 threes this season, he ranks 58th in percentage. That hasn’t deterred him from bombing away, as he’s taken at least four three-point attempts in five of his last six games.

With Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton leading one of the best offenses in the NBA, how often should Lopez chuck from the outside? Is there a better shot available for his team? What’s the sweet spot in terms of number of attempts? Let’s see how analytics and film answer those questions.

What Do The Analytics Say?

Lopez’s three-point attempts this season have resulted in 0.97 points per shot attempt. That’s down from 1.09 last year when he made a career-high 37.4 percent of his threes. That also pales in comparison to any shot from Antetokounmpo (1.64), Lillard (1.49), Khris Middleton (1.25), Malik Beasley (1.33) or Bobby Portis (1.26)—the guys he shares the court with the most.

When he’s not spotting up or spacing around the arc, his cuts have resulted in a whopping 1.69 points per shot attempt. That’s not a perfect data set, as NBA.com doesn’t specify if his cuts are all directly to the basket, but it gives us a solid understanding about how effective he is going toward the hoop. The issue is he’s cutting fewer than two times per game, while taking about five threes, most of which are of the spot-up variety.

If we’re only basing our decision on analytics, it’s clear he should be cutting to the hoop twice as many times as he’s spotting up. However, there’s more to the story.

What Does The Film Say?

Lopez went 1-for-7 against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday night, including 0-for-6 from distance. That’s as good as game as any to breakdown what we’re seeing from him on the court, both with and without the ball.

It’s not only Lopez’s success rate that pulls opposing bigs away from the paint, but also his willingness to bomb away. However, the Nets largely ignored him on the perimeter, wiping away that advantage.

In the clip below, he tries to provide Lillard with room to operate following the screen, but his man is committed to protecting the paint. This leaves him wide open on the arc, but he’s unable to connect.

Below is a good example of where Lopez needs to find the right balance. He thinks about diving to the rim after setting the screen for Beasley, but ultimately decides to pop back behind the arc for a step-back three. In hindsight, there was a lane for him to probe and make himself available for a lob pass.

This is another example of a shot Lopez should wean off. He loves to lumber behind the action, catch a pass at the top of the key and slow-mo into his shot. However, he’s only making 30 percent of his above the break threes this season and has always been better in the corners.

Ironically, the only shot he made against the Nets came inside the arc after he rolled to the rim. He’s averaging 1.42 points per shot attempt when he rolls following a screen, indicating this is also another shot he should feature more often in his repertoire.

Numbers aren’t the only thing that quantify the advantage of Lopez sticking behind the arc. He usually pulls the opposing team’s biggest player out with him, opening driving lanes for Lillard, Antetokounmpo and the rest of his teammates. That’s the part of the equation that can’t be quantified.

However, his size and touch around the hoop give him a massive advantage he should use more often. Once upon a time, he made a living as a back-to-the basket All-Star with elite touch and footwork. That version still exists somewhere.

He shouldn’t be bombing away from the outside twice as often as he’s cutting to the rim. There should be a better balance to his shot selection that will benefit both him and his teammates.

Source link : https://www.forbes.com/sites/briansampson/2023/12/28/does-brook-lopez-shoot-too-many-threes-for-the-milwaukee-bucks/

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Publish date : 2023-12-28 08:00:00

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