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The winner of three of the last four NBA MVP awards was drafted during a Taco Bell commercial. As the Denver Nuggets’ selection with the 41st overall pick in the second round of the 2014 draft flashed at the bottom of the screen—Nikola Jokic (listed as a power forward, by the way)—fans were treated to images of a mouthwatering quesarito.
Jokic may be the most overlooked draft prospect in league history, but he wasn’t the first, and he’s far from the last. The Oklahoma City Thunder snagged Jalen Williams with the 12th pick in 2022; he averaged 19 points, four assists and four rebounds on above-average efficiency in his sophomore NBA season last year. In 2021, the Houston Rockets got a likely future All-Star in Alperen Sengun at No. 16. The prior year, All-Star Tyrese Maxey went to Philadelphia at No. 21.
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In all drafts since 2009, 41% of all future All-Stars have fallen past the 10th pick. In the prior 10 drafts, that number was only slightly greater at 44%. In the drafts between 1989 and 1998, 42% of eventual All-Stars dropped outside the top 10, and it was 43% the decade before that. It seems to be a timeless truth that a certain percentage of elite players are bound to fall through the cracks.
It is confounding that, as Mexican-inspired fast food has advanced from a simple burrito to a burrito wrapped inside a cheesy quesadilla, the science of drafting basketball players has barely advanced at all. Meanwhile, NBA teams are smarter about everything from sleep and injury recovery off the court to shot selection on it.
There is far more information on prospects available nowadays, whether that’s game film, individual statistics or biometric data. An increasing number of elite young players, however, take paths to the NBA that don’t include attending a U.S. college, which makes scouting more complicated.
There are also many more players to evaluate than ever before, as the game has grown both nationally and globally. The prevalence of undrafted players in NBA rotations is at an all-time high, in part because of the league’s introducing two-way contracts in 2017-18 and now allowing…
Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-draft-remains-much-crapshoot-095500989.html
Author : Sportico
Publish date : 2024-06-27 09:55:00
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