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The Los Angeles Lakers have consistently maintained a record above .500. However, after their first 40 games, they found themselves at 22-18, with a point differential suggesting a team closer to 16-24 (minus-2.6 per game), ranking them sixth in the Western Conference, yet clearly not in the mix for a championship.
Since then, the Lakers have surged to a 20-7 record, outpacing their opponents by an impressive 8.3 points per 100 possessions. Only three teams boast a better record, and only two have shown superior statistics over the last two months.
A pivotal factor in this resurgence has been the addition of Luka Dončić, elevating their offensive potential significantly.
Below are key insights, statistics, and highlights on the Lakers as they approach the final 15 games of the season and the playoffs.
Improvements seen since those initial 40 games have occurred at both ends of the court, though the most notable progress has been on defense, where the Lakers rank second over the past two months.
This defensive enhancement is particularly noteworthy given that the overall league efficiency has been higher in February and March (114.7 points per 100 possessions) compared to the January average (112.9).
Lakers’ record and efficiency for the 2024-25 season:
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
During the last 27 games, the Lakers have experienced a slight increase in defensive rebounding percentage, but the bulk of their improvement stems from how effectively opponents are shooting. Since January 20, they lead the league in opponent effective field goal percentage (50.1%), a significant jump from their previous position at 25th (55.5%).
This change has involved a decrease in interior shots allowed…
While the Lakers have permitted more three-point attempts over the last two months, …
The data indicates no significant structural changes in their defensive strategy…
This suggests some luck on their part, as opponents have shot only 32.5% from long range in the past 27 games. Additionally, the reduction in opponent drives indicates a stronger defense at the point of contact.
The Lakers’ last victory prior to LeBron James’ injury occurred on March 6 against the Knicks, where they limited the high-scoring offense to just 49 points on 54 possessions in the second half. Gabe Vincent effectively navigated screens set for Jalen Brunson, but when screens were initiated by the player Dončić was defending, he typically switched.
In a crucial late-game situation, after switching to Brunson, Jaxson Hayes disregarded his assignment (Josh Hart) to help defend the isolation play. Hart responded by setting a flare screen to free Mikal Bridges…
However, Bridges’ cut toward the basket was tracked by both LeBron and eventually Hayes, allowing James to recover to cover Karl-Anthony Towns. Hart then set a screen for Brunson, but Dorian Finney-Smith switched, keeping the Knicks’ offense stagnant. Bridges attempted to flash to the ball but was unable to get a shot off against Hayes…
The Knicks ended up with Hart holding the ball at the arc, left with no defensive advantage and only six seconds remaining on the shot clock…
Hart attempted to isolate against Dončić, but couldn’t find a quality shot…
The acquisitions of Finney-Smith, increased minutes for Hayes, and Vincent’s health have all contributed significantly to the Lakers’ defensive success. L.A. has allowed just 105.6 points per 100 possessions during the 629 minutes with at least two of those three players on the court.
When the Dallas Mavericks made their run to the 2024 NBA Finals, they did so by outscoring the Minnesota Timberwolves by 10.7 points per 100 possessions in the conference finals (118.3) compared to what the Timberwolves permitted in the first two rounds (107.6). Dončić, naturally, was pivotal in both possession time and usage rate among all four teams participating in the finals.
Defensively, Dončić has held his ground, but his primary impact on the Lakers has been offensive. Since debuting with L.A. on February 10, the offense has excelled, averaging 116.1 points per 100 possessions when he is the orchestrator.
The Lakers also feature two other capable ball handlers. Since Dončić’s first game with the team, he averages 6.9 minutes per game of possession time, while Austin Reaves and James clock in at 5.3 and 5.2 respectively, all ranking in the top 25 for possession time.
With three playmakers on the roster…
1. They can ensure at least two are on the court at all times.
2. This complicates defensive strategies aimed at eliminating production from the primary star.
Alternatively, they can leverage all three in sequential plays to generate open scoring opportunities…
Here are a few additional observations regarding the Lakers:
1. Size is crucial
The Lakers dealt Anthony Davis for Dončić but still maintain a tall lineup, with Vincent (6-foot-2) being the only player under 6-foot-5 in their rotation. Their preferred starting group features heights of 6-foot-5, 6-foot-6, 6-foot-8, 6-foot-9, and 7-feet, and they could deploy lineups with Dončić (6-foot-6) as their shortest player.
2. Home court strength
The Lakers have triumphed in 15 of their last 16 home games, with their only loss coming to the Hornets just before the All-Star break. Conversely, they have faced four losses in a row on the road, holding the biggest home-road winning percentage differential in the league (27-7 at home versus 15-18 away).
3. Clutch performance
Currently sitting in fourth place and tied in losses with the second-place Rockets, the Lakers rank only eighth in point differential within the Western Conference, reflecting a team more suited to a 38-29 record rather than 42-25. They’ve suffered three straight defeats in tightly contested road games (all within five points in the final five minutes), yet still have the fifth-best clutch performance overall (20-13).
4. Strong against competitive teams
The Lakers hold the fourth-best record (19-14) against the 15 teams currently with a winning record, although they have been outscored by a total of nine points in these encounters. They had an impressive 11-game win streak against this group until suffering a loss on March 8 in Boston that coincided with James’ injury. Subsequent losses in Milwaukee and Denver followed while he was sidelined.
They will have the opportunity to exact revenge in their next home games against both teams after a stretch of six games in eight days. James will still be unavailable as they embark on their third consecutive back-to-back, starting with a matchup against the Nuggets on Wednesday (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). They will then face the Bucks on Thursday (10:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass).
Out of their final 15 games, nine will be against teams with winning records, seven of which rank in the top six of the Western Conference. The Lakers have ample chances to establish themselves as championship contenders.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can reach out to him via email, explore his archive here, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed on this page do not necessarily represent those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
