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The upcoming 2025 Eastern Conference semifinals will mark the 17th playoff clash between the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks, representing the second most encounters between any two teams in NBA playoff history, surpassed only by the rivalry between the Celtics and the Sixers.
However, the last time these two teams faced off in the postseason was in 2013. As famously stated by Rick Pitino, “Larry Bird is not walking through that door.” The history of their prior matchups holds little relevance for this series. More significantly, recent performances indicate that the Celtics have dominated the Knicks, claiming victory in eight out of their last nine encounters.
This season, the Celtics achieved a remarkable four-game sweep over the Knicks, averaging an astonishing 130.2 points per 100 possessions—the highest figure allowed by the Knicks against any opponent.
Can the Knicks turn the tables and win four out of seven? The first game kicks off on Monday.
Here’s how you can catch the Celtics vs. Knicks series:
All times listed are Eastern Standard Time.
* = If necessary
**Targeting Brunson and Towns.** The Celtics’ offensive strategy is straightforward: they aim to exploit mismatches by matching Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown against weaker defenders. This allows them to penetrate and create high-quality shooting opportunities. While both Tatum and Brown can effectively take on any opponent in one-on-one situations, their offense thrives on drawing defensive attention, leading to open 3-point attempts.
The Knicks possess three strong defenders in their starting lineup. We anticipate that OG Anunoby and Josh Hart will initially be tasked with guarding Tatum and Brown, respectively. However, Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns will likely be primary targets for the Celtics, and they should expect to be tested repeatedly over the next couple of weeks.
In the regular season, the Celtics targeted Towns in 134 pick-and-roll situations (51 per 100 possessions), a record for any defender against Boston. Brunson was involved as the screener’s defender on 31 occasions, ranking as the fifth most for him, while the Detroit Pistons found success targeting him during their first-round matchup.
The outcome of this series may hinge on how effectively Brunson and Towns cope with these pick-and-roll scenarios, along with how well the Knicks rotate defensively behind them. A slight silver lining for the Knicks was that the Celtics managed to record assists on only 68% of their 3-pointers over the regular season matchups, their second-lowest assist rate against any foe.
Having advanced past the Pistons, the Knicks now face the defending champion Celtics, who dispatched the Magic in five games.
**Towns in the Post.** The Celtics have two solid defenders on their front line, but Tatum and Jrue Holiday were the primary defenders against Towns during the regular season. Boston often utilizes Tatum to guard opposing centers, allowing him to switch seamlessly on pick-and-roll plays and maintain pressure on the ball-handler.
Other teams have had success defending Towns using non-centers, which can free their big men to guard a less aggressive shooter like Josh Hart. This mobility helps in defending Towns on the perimeter as well.
But will he capitalize on opportunities in the paint? He had some success against Tobias Harris in the first round, but found greater success against fellow center Jalen Duren.
**For Boston: Holiday’s Health.** Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla noted that Holiday is “day-to-day” after missing the final three games of the previous round due to a right hamstring strain.
The silver lining is that the Celtics are accustomed to playing with limited personnel. Their top six players (the starters and Al Horford) have only been available together for 18 out of their 87 games. When reliant on their supporting players, they’ve often excelled, outpacing the Orlando Magic by nearly 27 points per 100 possessions during Sam Hauser’s 74 minutes on the court in the first round.
However, transitioning from the Magic to facing the Knicks is a significant escalation in competition, especially concerning a player capable of defending elite scorers like Brunson. Brown primarily defended Brunson during the four regular-season matchups, but Holiday, who missed one game, was the main defender in the last two.
**For New York: Hart’s Energy and Open Shots.** In the lone close game during the regular season—Boston’s overtime victory on April 8—New York had 10 more shooting opportunities than their opponents, thanks to turnovers and offensive rebounds.
To compete effectively in this series, the Knicks need to dominate the possession battle. Hart’s relentless hustle and keen instincts for the ball can significantly contribute to this goal. Additionally, his readiness to run the floor in transition could lead to early scoring opportunities and prevent the Knicks from often being pressed for time with the shot clock.
Nonetheless, he must convert open shots. As previously mentioned, the Celtics will likely defend him with their big men, who would favor positioning in the paint. Hart, who went 1-for-9 from beyond the arc in their regular-season matchups, must take advantage of this strategy.
**39** — Across the four regular season meetings, the Celtics outperformed the Knicks by making 39 more 3-pointers. This stands as the fourth-largest differential in any regular season series since the introduction of the 3-point line 46 seasons ago. The Celtics matched the NBA record for 3-pointers made in an opening-night victory against New York and followed that with performances of 10, three, and eight more threes in their subsequent meetings against the Knicks.
The Knicks will require contributions from players like Hart, Mikal Bridges (who shot 7-for-22 from deep against Boston), and Anunoby (2-for-15) for their shooting to improve. Moreover, creating space for Towns to take perimeter shots will be paramount, as he only attempted 11 3-pointers against Boston this season, recording 2.9 attempts per 36 minutes—his second-lowest output against any team.
On the defensive end, the Knicks were quite effective at limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts, finishing the season with the sixth-lowest opponent 3-point rate (40.7% of opponents’ shots). However, they allowed the Celtics to take 53.9% of their shots from beyond the arc in their four matchups, and their reluctance to switch on defense with Brunson or Towns might allow the Celtics to manipulate their defense for favorable catch-and-shoot opportunities.
**Celtics in Five.** The Knicks may secure their first win against one of the league’s elite teams (they went 0-10 against Boston, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City), but it’s difficult to envision them achieving four victories. Every one of their successes against the Pistons was closely contested, and the defending champions represent a significantly superior challenge.
The Celtics boast effective defenders and strategies that can limit New York’s top talents while possessing an offense capable of exploiting weaknesses on the other side. Facing a more formidable opponent should instill a sense of urgency in the champions to maintain the focus necessary for success.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can reach him via email, browse his archive, and follow him on social media.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily correspond to those of the NBA, its clubs, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
