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One team managed to secure their spot in the Western Conference semifinals after just four games. The other, however, required all seven games to clinch their victory over the L.A. Clippers (or at least, six and three-quarters of one). Recent matchups between Oklahoma City and Denver have shown little separation; they each won two out of four face-offs this season, are evenly matched at 8-8 since the 2021-22 campaign, and have each captured two playoff series against one another.
Last year, both teams were halted in the semifinals, with OKC losing to Dallas in six games and Denver falling in Game 7 to Minnesota. This time, only one will earn a trip to the Western Conference Finals.
Here’s how to tune in for the Thunder vs. Nuggets series:
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A clash of MVP contenders arises. It has been eight years since we’ve seen this level of individual matchup in a playoff series. Back in 2017, OKC’s Russell Westbrook faced Houston’s James Harden, the top two vote-getters for the Most Valuable Player honor, in the first round of the Western playoffs. Now, we have the leading contenders—Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nuggets center Nikola Jokić—set for a similar showdown.
While the voting for the regular-season award is finalized, both players hold immense worth to their teams, making any selection valid. SGA captured the scoring title (32.7 ppg) with his team achieving a league-best record of 68-14. Meanwhile, Jokić boasts three of the last four Michael Jordan trophies and remains the NBA’s premier player, irrespective of any given season’s polling results.
Though they don’t play the same position, both are critical to their teams and have significant stakes in each game. The major distinction? SGA benefits from a strong supporting cast that allows him to have an off night without dire consequences (although he typically doesn’t; he scored 20 or more points in 75 of the 76 games played). Conversely, Jokić can’t afford to slip, as his team may falter without him.
Ultimately, this matchup is an exciting subplot to the broader competitive landscape.
Oklahoma City boasts a wealth of defensive talent. Can Denver muster a similar level of resistance against the top seed in the West?
**Playoff Jamal.** Jamal Murray has established a name for himself as a clutch playoff performer, a reputation created during the 2020 “bubble” playoffs and solidified during Denver’s quest for a title in 2023. Despite his undeniable talent, Murray has yet to achieve All-Star status but has averaged 18 points per game in eight regular seasons, in stark contrast to his 24 points per game across 72 postseason games leading up to Saturday’s Game 7 victory over the Clippers. While injuries have hindered his regular-season performance, the playoffs allow him to focus on a single opponent for an extended period. He thrives under playoff pressure, taking an average of 19.6 shots during the postseason—five more than his regular-season average.
**For the Thunder:** Following OKC night after night is akin to witnessing an expert demonstration of exceptional team defense. The Thunder topped the league in defensive efficiency while leading in steals, deflections, opponents’ turnovers, and points generated from those turnovers. Their roster allows for versatile matchups against both large and small opponents, featuring tenacious defenders like Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, multi-talented Jalen Williams, and significant presences in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The Thunder can execute a variety of defensive strategies—whether it’s blitzing, switching, or holding their ground. They achieved an impressive 19-0 record when keeping opponents below 100 points and a 50-1 record when limiting them to under 110 (while Denver struggled with a 1-16 record when failing to reach the 110-point mark). Although Jokić (30) and Murray (11) have scored 30 or more points combined on 41 occasions, OKC only allowed an individual opponent to surpass that benchmark 12 times throughout the season, the lowest figure in the league.
**For the Nuggets:** Envision a championship-caliber boxer who, for 30 seconds in every three-minute round, carelessly leaves his chin exposed and his arms at his sides. That’s how it feels every time Jokić steps off the court. Denver’s challenges during “non-Jokić minutes” have been thoroughly documented throughout his career, only serving to highlight his significance. This season, the Nuggets enjoyed a +10.5 net rating with him on the floor, contrasting sharply with a -9.3 point differential per 100 possessions when he was off the court. Each spring, and in every series, a primary concern for the Nuggets is to endure his absence—a challenge that extends beyond just their backup center, reflecting his essential role in orchestrating the team’s offense.
**8.8** — During the regular season, the Thunder achieved the second-best turnover differential in the history of recorded turnovers. In the first round, they recorded 8.8 fewer turnovers than the Grizzlies, marking the second-largest differential in any playoff series across the past 48 years.
Maintaining their regular-season trends, the Thunder featured both the lowest turnover rate (10.3 per 100 possessions) and the highest rate of opponent turnovers (18.7 per 100) during the first round. On the offensive end, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace collectively contributed 25 assists against only three turnovers. Defensively, they averaged 8.2 and 5.7 deflections per 36 minutes, ranking first and fourth among 134 players who participated in at least 50 playoff minutes by Friday.
In contrast, the Nuggets placed 25th in turnover differential during the regular season (averaging 1.3 more turnovers per game than their opponents) and had 12 more turnovers (54-42) than the Thunder in their four-game regular-season series, even though they were able to even the score with advantages in shooting, free-throw efficiency, and rebounding percentage.
— John Schuhmann
**Thunder in five.** OKC learned how to handle extended breaks between series last year. They avoided rust by staying active, engaging in intensive and focused training sessions. Meanwhile, the Nuggets may either be riding a wave of momentum following their Game 7 success against the Clippers or feeling a bit weary from the quick turnaround to Monday’s game. While Denver’s experience from the Finals two years ago is valuable, the Thunder’s youth, depth, and adaptability, paired with superior defensive prowess, may give them the upper hand.
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Steve Aschburner has been covering the NBA since 1980. You can reach him via e-mail here, explore his archive here, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed on this page do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
