By its very essence, a seed signifies something minute—an insignificant speck until it blossoms into something greater over time. However, seeding in the context of the NBA playoffs carries substantial weight, laden with expectations and responsibilities.
This is particularly true for the top seed. Teams that earn this status in both conferences must manage the accompanying pressure, enduring both triumphs and challenges over several weeks.
Currently, we turn our attention to the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Cleveland Cavaliers, as the NBA postseason approaches its halfway point. Where do they find themselves?
At the moment, both teams are down 2-1 in their respective conference semifinals, which puts their chances of advancing in a precarious position.
It’s important to note that not all 2-1 situations are identical, and this instance exemplifies that difference. The Cavaliers are struggling against the Pacers mainly because three key players were sidelined during both losses. The Thunder, on the other hand, find themselves behind due to an inability to secure wins in closely contested games.
There are no ominous clouds looming over either team, but there is definitely a sense of concern. The margin for error is razor-thin for these favorites. A further misstep could propel them into a must-win scenario—something neither team envisioned during their smooth regular seasons or their flawless initial rounds.
Let’s take a moment to assess the current state of these top seeds, reviewing their situations and what lies ahead:
**What’s in the past:** The Cavaliers achieved an impressive 64-win season, asserting dominance over their closest challengers. Several individuals garnered accolades: Donovan Mitchell is likely to receive MVP recognition, Evan Mobley is in contention for defensive player of the year, and Kenny Atkinson was named Coach of the Year. Players like De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome contributed significantly off the bench. They followed that success by sweeping the Miami Heat in the first round.
However, the second round presented a tough challenge as they dropped the first two games at home to the Pacers. Injuries played a role; Garland missed the opening game, while Mobley and Hunter were absent for Game 2. Nonetheless, the Cavaliers had to deliver in a must-win Game 3, which they accomplished with confidence.
**What’s gone wrong:** Jerome was a pivotal player during the Miami series and in Game 1 against the Pacers (with 21 points and eight assists), but his recent performance has faltered. Furthermore, when Garland was sidelined due to injury, Jerome struggled to make an impact. Now that Garland has returned, Jerome’s role has diminished, but his contribution remains vital. Additionally, an uncharacteristic turnover from Max Strus during Game 2 proved costly for Cleveland.
The unfortunate injuries played a key role in the two losses. While it’s a setback for the Cavaliers, there might be a silver lining: their 2-0 deficit may provide them with valuable insights about their resilience, more so than their regular-season success would have.
**What’s gone right:** Donovan Mitchell has certainly been a bright spot. With 91 points over the last two games and a plethora of highlight moments, he’s been instrumental. While his decision-making faltered in the closing moments of Game 2, his performance overall in the second round has been impressive. Mitchell thrives in the playoffs, having participated every year of his career and currently averaging 28 points, five rebounds, and five assists.
When fully healthy, the Cavaliers boast a more formidable lineup than the Pacers and probably any remaining teams in the East. Their Game 3 display was far more representative of their identity compared to the earlier contests.
**What’s in store:** With the Cavaliers down 2-1, the upcoming game on Sunday (8 ET, TNT) feels like a must-win for Indiana. The Pacers acquired two victories, one of which required Tyrese Haliburton’s last-minute heroics, largely due to Cleveland’s injuries.
However, the Cavaliers cannot keep leaning on Mitchell, no matter how reliable he has been, nor can they afford further injuries; that’s a risky game to play. If they manage to eliminate the Pacers, they stand as favorites against either the Celtics or the Knicks in the next round.
**Full Focus:** Mitchell scored 43 points, leading the Cavaliers in Game 3.
**What’s in the past:** The Thunder delivered one of the most dominant seasons in modern NBA history with a remarkable 68 wins. They excelled at both ends of the court, capturing the top spot in the West by a margin of 16 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander positioned himself as a leading MVP candidate.
They breezed through the first round, dispatching the Memphis Grizzlies with ease. However, urgency set in when the Nuggets stunned them with victories in Games 1 and 3 of the Western semifinals, raising concerns about OKC’s chances.
**What’s gone wrong:** It may be harsh to hold Shai to an exceptionally high standard due to his outstanding season and remarkable efficiency. But the league’s top scorer seems to be performing below expectations, particularly since the blowout win in Game 2 against Denver. His shooting efficiency has dipped, and he has struggled to get to the free-throw line. In four of OKC’s seven playoff encounters, he shot under 40%. Have the Nuggets found a way to neutralize him, or can he adapt without relying on free throws?
Also, Oklahoma City’s defense has not stood strong against Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, especially on the perimeter, which falls on the shoulders of Lu Dort and Alex Caruso. Notably, the Thunder suffered 16 losses this season, with four of those coming against Denver.
**What’s gone right:** Jalen Williams had a slow start in the Denver series but has emerged as a reliable option, delivering crucial performances. In Game 3, he excelled as OKC’s most dependable player, contributing 16 points in the fourth quarter to keep his team’s hopes alive.
The Thunder’s big men have generally performed well throughout the playoffs. While Isaiah Hartenstein struggled with his floater in Game 3, he and Chet Holmgren have done a commendable job guarding Nikola Jokić, aside from his 42-point, 22-rebound Game 1.
**What’s in store:** OKC finds itself in a challenging position due to late-game collapses in both of their semifinal losses. The first game was decided by Gordon’s buzzer-beater, while the second required overtime. The Thunder had opportunities to win both and could have been up 3-0; instead, they face their current predicament.
Shai claims that his response will be assertive on Sunday. This is a situation worth trusting, as it would be unfathomable for the presumed MVP to falter again.
Keep in mind that Oklahoma City has not felt pressure all season or during the first round. This is a new experience for them, having not faced such scrutiny since last summer, when they lost in the conference semifinals to Dallas. If the Thunder can overcome this series, they will still be favorites to reach the Finals and potentially clinch the championship.
If they fail, they will be burdened by a growing perception that this core group may lack the ability to prevail in the playoffs.
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Shaun Powell has been covering the NBA for over 25 years. Feel free to email him here, view his archive here, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed in this piece do not necessarily represent those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.