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The Boston Celtics, reigning champions who had breezed through the playoffs en route to the 2024 title, now find themselves on the brink of elimination—strikingly minus their star player.
Jayson Tatum could be sidelined for an entire year following a ruptured right Achilles tendon suffered late in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday. Trailing 3-1 after squandering another significant second-half lead, the Celtics will look to stave off elimination in Game 5 on Wednesday at 7 PM ET on TNT.
Securing a victory without Tatum is undoubtedly a challenge, but it’s not out of reach. This season, Boston has managed a 9-2 record in games without Tatum, including 3-2 against other playoff teams.
However, winning three consecutive games against the Knicks presents a steeper challenge, particularly with Kristaps Porziņģis appearing to be hampered by illness. For now, the immediate mission is to secure a win in Game 5.
“We just need to find a way,” Derrick White stated on Monday. “Regardless of who’s on the floor, we’ll do whatever it takes.”
As the series shifts back to Boston, here are some key insights, statistics, and highlights.
With Tatum unavailable, the focus turns to Jaylen Brown, who has recorded an effective field goal percentage of only 42.2% in this series.
Despite Brown’s ongoing struggles, the Celtics have managed to stay competitive, outpacing the Knicks by two points in the 30 minutes he played without Tatum, aided by some strong defensive efforts.
**Celtics with Brown and/or Tatum on the floor in conference semifinals:**
– Offensive Rating (OffRtg): Points scored per 100 possessions
– Defensive Rating (DefRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions
– Net Rating (NetRtg): Point differential per 100 possessions
The Celtics’ offensive strategy will involve targeting Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns through pick-and-roll setups for Brown. Over the first four games, Brunson (21) or Towns (16) have defended against the screener during 37 of the 53 ball-screens initiated by Brown, as per Second Spectrum data.
Brunson has held his ground reasonably well on key defensive matchups with Brown, but generally, the Knicks employ a strategy where Brunson hedges before attempting to recover back to his assignment, allowing Brown’s usual primary defender (*Josh Hart) the chance to cover the ball.
* With Tatum sidelined, we might see OG Anunoby taking on the assignment against Brown in Wednesday’s match.
This hedge-and-recover approach could create opportunities for the Celtics if Brown can make decisive moves.
In the first possession of the third quarter in Game 4, the Celtics executed two screens for Brown—one against Towns and another against Brunson. White slipped off the second screen to take an open shot from beyond the arc, with the chance to drive past Towns’ defensive recovery for an even better scoring opportunity.
Currently, the Celtics are at the bottom of the league in ball movement statistics (averaging 266 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and are ranked 15th in player movement (10.1 miles traveled per 24 minutes) during the playoffs. Although Game 4 showcased a few moments of improved movement resulting in good scoring opportunities…
… such possessions have been infrequent.
In the absence of Tatum’s isolation scoring, the Celtics will require more fluidity in their offensive sets. Moreover, with Towns expected to switch on screens involving Brown, aggressively targeting Brunson and increasing defensive pressure could yield a more effective game plan.
When fully healthy, the Celtics boast six starters. Nevertheless, Porziņģis’ current struggles complicate their ability to compensate for Tatum’s output.
In Game 4, the Celtics endured nearly seven minutes in the fourth quarter without Brown due to foul trouble. During this stretch, they fielded a larger lineup with two guards, Tatum, Al Horford, and Porziņģis.
The results were lackluster, highlighted by a sequence where a missed layup and a defensive lapse showcased Porziņģis’ challenges. Over the course of the series, the Celtics have been outscored by 11 points (8.9 per 100 possessions) in 63 minutes played with two big men (either Horford, Porziņģis, or Luke Kornet) on the court.
At present, the optimal Celtics lineup features Payton Pritchard, White, Jrue Holiday, Brown, and Horford. Interestingly, this group has clocked more minutes in the playoffs (12) than during the regular season (10).
In this series, the Celtics combined Pritchard, White, and Holiday on the floor for just 13 minutes. Those moments have not produced favorable offensive outcomes (31 points across 32 possessions), largely due to poor shooting from three-point range (2-for-15). Defensive challenges persist, particularly with rebounding.
However, a more small-ball approach is likely in Game 5, which could invigorate the Celtics’ drive-and-kick offense. Sam Hauser, who has missed the prior three games due to an ankle injury, is probable for Game 5. His presence would provide the Celtics with additional flexibility with just one big on the court.
The Knicks have exhibited a notable capability to recover from significant deficits in this series; however, they would prefer to circumvent such scenarios. Astonishingly, they have fallen behind by at least 11 points in the first quarter of six out of their eight matchups against the Celtics this season.
Their first-quarter struggles extend to both offensive and defensive performances, with Boston scoring an impressive 135.6 points per 100 possessions while New York has managed only 91.8 per 100 across 96 total first-quarter minutes in their clashes.
In the early minutes of Game 4’s first quarter, several missed shots from open looks (as shooters were still warming up) hindered the Knicks’ ability to establish their defense. Later in the first quarter, after the Knicks had surged ahead, Tatum ignited with a scoring spree, enabling the Celtics to tally 12 points on their final four possessions.
Success at one end often breeds success at the other. If the Knicks can focus on tightening up defensively or executing effectively on offense, they can likely avoid another sluggish start.
Although the Knicks have had difficulty early in games, they’ve excelled in the closing moments. Six of their seven playoff victories have been decided by five points or fewer within the last five minutes, the lone exception being Game 1 of the opening round, where they transformed an eight-point deficit into a 13-point lead through a sensational 21-0 run.
The Celtics were renowned for their late-game prowess last season (27-12, including playoffs) and in the regular season (league-best 24-11), but currently they hold a 1-4 record in games decided by five points or less in these playoffs.
In this series, Boston has produced a dismal 12 points on 24 clutch offensive possessions, going just 3-for-23 (13%) from the field, including 1-for-11 from beyond the arc. Their turnover count during clutch moments (four) exceeds their field goals.
Up until Tuesday, 53% of playoff games have been within five points during the last five minutes, up from 46% in the regular season. Given that this series has the slowest pace among the conference semifinals, it’s quite probable that Game 5 will present more clutch opportunities.
If so, the Celtics will need to find a way to convert a few more shots.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can reach him via email, explore his archive, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed on this page may not reflect those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
