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The Indiana Pacers are just one victory away from making their first appearance in the NBA Finals in 25 years. While it’s often said that defense secures championships, a strong offense can also take a team a long way.
As the Pacers have surged to a 3-1 advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals, their offensive prowess has taken the spotlight, putting the New York Knicks on the brink of elimination in Game 5 this Thursday (8 PM ET, TNT).
Let’s dive into some statistics, insights, and highlights as the series heads back to Madison Square Garden.
The statistic: In the first four games, the Knicks have averaged 118.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking as the third-highest rate for any team in this year’s playoffs.
… yet they find themselves trailing 3-1.
The Pacers, on the other hand, have achieved an impressive 121.1 points per 100 possessions during this stretch, marking their most effective offensive performance of the playoffs while exposing the Knicks’ defensive weaknesses since the All-Star break. With the exception of a less productive second half in Game 3 (42 points on 48 possessions), Indiana’s offense has been consistently effective.
Though the Pacers’ shooting hasn’t matched the high levels from the previous two playoff rounds, they have demonstrated improved ball control, increased trips to the free-throw line, and better rebounding of their own misses. According to tracking data from Second Spectrum, they have also created higher quality shot opportunities compared to the Knicks.
Although the Pacers’ offense hasn’t been as evenly distributed compared to their earlier playoff series, they still average 324 passes per 24 minutes of possession, outpacing the Knicks, who average only 263.
The two teams have collectively produced 120.0 points per 100 possessions, making this one of the top five most efficient series in the last 29 years for which play-by-play data is available. Notably, one of the four more efficient series (121.6 per 100) was the Knicks versus Pacers matchup in last year’s conference semifinals.
The statistic: Across the four games, the Pacers have outscored the Knicks by 47 points in transition (106-59), as reported by Synergy tracking.
The key to the Pacers’ offensive success lies in their ability to capitalize on transition opportunities, averaging 26.5 points per game in this phase, which is an increase from 23.0 in the earlier rounds. The Knicks have occasionally struggled with live-ball turnovers, but they only trail Indiana by five turnovers (32 to 27) in four games, while having 23 more dead-ball turnovers, allowing the Pacers to exploit both missed shots and scored baskets.
In the early moments of Game 4, after a basket by Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton launched a deep pass to Pascal Siakam, who found himself with just Karl-Anthony Towns to beat as the other Knicks jogged back on defense.
Bonus statistic: Haliburton has averaged 7.8 “pass-ahead” passes per game throughout the series, which is 3.3 more than any other player in the conference finals. He was the league leader with an average of 9.2 in the regular season.
It’s not merely that the Knicks have allowed the Pacers to run frequently; they have also failed to disrupt them effectively during these sequences. Indiana has registered 1.36 points per possession in transition, posting an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 71.4% within the first seven seconds of the shot clock, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
In the first four games, the scores in the first seven seconds of the shot clock (excluding free throws) stand at Pacers 100, Knicks 26.
Shooting metrics within the first seven seconds of the shot clock, Eastern Conference Finals:
eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FGA = Percentage of total FGA via Second Spectrum
The Pacers’ 57.1% shooting from three-point range in the first seven seconds cannot be sustained over a broader sample; their regular-season mark was 38.6% in similar situations.
However, the Knicks may not have the opportunity to witness a larger sample if they do not improve their transition defense on Thursday.
The Knicks’ shooting percentage of 32.4% in the first seven seconds of the clock is abysmally low, but credit should be given to the Pacers for executing superior transition defense. Throughout the series, the Pacers have maintained an average possession length of 14.1 seconds, compared to the Knicks’ 16.0 seconds.
Although the Knicks have outperformed the Pacers in the closing seconds of the shot clock, Indiana’s shooting record during that time is only 3-for-23 (13%) from beyond the arc. It wasn’t until Game 3 that New York successfully pressured the Pacers into late-shot-clock situations.
The statistic: Brunson has defended the screener on 33.7 ball screens per 100 possessions, a significant increase from 26.4 per 100 in the first round and 16.2 per 100 in the conference semifinals, per Second Spectrum data.
The Celtics were aggressive in targeting weak defenders, and the Pacers have increased their focus on Brunson, utilizing him in double the actions compared to previous rounds (Boston mainly targeted Towns). This strategy has paid off, yielding 1.20 points per possession (97 points on 81 actions) when Brunson served as the screener’s defender.
In Game 4, the Pacers thrived (15 points from eight attempts) when one Brunson-defended screen was quickly succeeded by another, allowing them to challenge both Brunson and Towns in the same play.
This play resulted in an easy layup for Myles Turner, as Towns was caught off guard, even after Mikal Bridges managed to close back in on Haliburton.
The 29 ball screens defended by Brunson in Game 4 represent the highest total he has ever faced in a single game, as stated by Second Spectrum. While it’s unlikely he reaches that number again on Thursday, the Pacers may well attempt to do so.
The statistic: Towns has been averaging 25.8 points, his highest scoring average in any of the nine playoff series he’s participated in during his career.
These 25.8 points come with a true shooting percentage of 66.8%, his second-best mark across those nine playoff series. While defense remains a concern, Towns has performed remarkably well on the offensive end.
Much of that success has come against Turner, as Towns has shot 19-for-32, including 8-for-11 from beyond the arc, while being defended by Turner. Though there’s some fortune in that three-point shooting percentage, Turner has also found it difficult to contain Towns’ driving capabilities.
Since the Knicks adjusted their starting lineup — bringing in Mitchell Robinson to replace Josh Hart — Siakam has found himself guarding Towns more frequently in recent games. The Pacers haven’t been pleased with that matchup, opting for double-teams when Towns posted up against Siakam on Tuesday.
Turner remains the primary defender and had a better outing in Game 4, preventing Towns from scoring more than once (1-for-4) when facing him. One of those misses resulted in a crucial block by Turner early in the fourth quarter.
Given Robinson’s less impactful performance as a starter in comparison to his earlier bench role, the Knicks may revert to their traditional starting lineup in Game 5. This likely leads to more direct matchups between Towns and Turner, and if Towns can maintain his scoring efficiency, the Knicks may have an opportunity to prolong the series.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can reach him via email here, explore his archive here, and follow him on X.
The viewpoints expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
