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It was beyond anyone’s expectations to foresee the outcomes of the initial two games in the Eastern Conference semifinals matchup between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.
Entering the series, the Knicks had just scrapped their way past the sixth-seeded Detroit Pistons in the first round, and they held a dismal record of 0-10 during the regular season against the league’s top three teams. If we look back further, they had also dropped eight of the last nine contests against Boston.
The Celtics, as defending champions, are among the elite teams, boasting a top-five ranking in both offense and defense. They led by as much as 20 points in each of the first two games and yet find themselves down 0-2, with three out of the next four games slated for Madison Square Garden (if they can push the series further).
The series has been far from pretty; both teams, which ranked as top-five offenses in the regular season, have only managed to score at a rate of one point per possession (394 total). The Knicks have now experienced seven consecutive games that were decided by three points or less, needing to secure only two wins in the next five to reach the conference finals for the first time in 25 years.
Despite being down 2-0, the Celtics have endured significant meltdowns in both home games, yet it wouldn’t be surprising if they were to win the next four contests.
As the series shifts to New York for Game 3 on Saturday (3:30 ET, ABC), here are some insights, statistics, and observations:
The Celtics are known for taking some of the most challenging three-point shots in the league. According to data from Second Spectrum, they ranked 25th in the share of open 3-point attempts (46%) and 28th in attempts off the dribble (65%) during the regular season. Their wide-open looks dropped to just 34% in the opening round, where they shot 38% from beyond the arc overall.
In the first two games of the conference semifinals, 48% of the Celtics’ three-point attempts were wide open, yet they only converted 12 out of 48 (25%) of those opportunities.
Although the Celtics generated some difficult shots in the closing moments of Game 2, they could certainly benefit from increased ball and player movement. Additionally, they missed three open 3-pointers in the final seven minutes with no defenders nearby:
Had any of those shots fallen, the series could very well be tied at 1-1. As it stands, the Celtics are now 1-for-11 on clutch three-point attempts in the playoffs.
During the regular season and the first round, Boston proved to be a more proficient shooting team. Second Spectrum indicates that the Celtics had a higher shot quality in both of the initial games.
It appeared that for the Knicks to have a shot in this series, they would need to excel in maintaining possessions, handling the ball carefully, and controlling the boards.
However, the Celtics have amassed 18 more shooting opportunities than the Knicks through the first two games. They also committed two fewer turnovers and outperformed the Knicks on the boards, with six Celtics players grabbing at least four offensive rebounds across the two contests.
During the second quarter on Wednesday, Brown intercepted a rebound from OG Anunoby, outpaced Josh Hart to the ball after Jrue Holiday’s missed three-pointer, and converted one of those open 3s, which went in:
Looking ahead, the Celtics are expected to improve their shooting, yet they should not rely on that alone. By continuing to control the possession game, they may worry less about their shooting percentages.
The Knicks have been effective in neutralizing the Celtics’ rebounding advantage when Mitchell Robinson is on the court. They have claimed 51.5% of available rebounds while he plays, compared to just 42.3% when he is off the floor.
Overall, the Knicks have outscored the Celtics by 32 points in Robinson’s 43 minutes during the first two games. No other player in the series has exceeded a plus-6, and the Celtics seem to struggle against Robinson, committing several fouls to send him to the bench.
The disparity between Robinson’s on-court minutes (plus 34.5 points per 100 possessions) and off-court minutes (minus 22.7 per 100) has shown a consistent trend on both offense and defense.
On the defensive end, he has excelled against the pick-and-roll more effectively than Towns. Although he was beaten for a dunk by Tatum late in Game 2, he stayed in front of Boston’s star on the subsequent possession.
According to Second Spectrum, the Celtics have managed only 0.62 points per chance when Robinson is defending the ball screen, even registering 0.69 points per chance (11 out of 16) against him when he switched to guard the ball-handler.
In the final moments of Game 2, similar to the end of regulation in Game 1, Robinson switched onto Tatum, forcing a difficult step-back three that gave the Knicks an opportunity to win the game:
Robinson has been substituted for Towns in defensive scenarios during the closing seconds of both games, but their combined presence on the court has yielded even better results. In 15 minutes of play with both bigs on the floor, the Knicks have outscored the Celtics by 21 points while limiting them to just 11 points on 28 possessions (39 points per 100).
The strategies of both offenses hinge on who is setting screens for their key players. The Celtics are seeking to facilitate plays for Tatum and Brown through Towns and Brunson, while the Knicks specifically target Boston’s bigs with screens for Brunson.
Interestingly, some of the most effective screens have come from the stars themselves.
Late in the first quarter of Game 2, Brunson set a clever transition screen for OG Anunoby near the left sideline. Payton Pritchard hesitated to leave Brunson, allowing Anunoby to gain a step on Derrick White. This forced Luke Kornet to help, resulting in Anunoby assisting Robinson for a dunk:
During the second quarter, Tatum set a screen for White. When Mikal Bridges hesitated to leave Tatum, remaining attached to his man despite a quick hedge, White managed to get past Cameron Payne, drawing help and assisting Luke Kornet for a layup:
Naturally, keeping the ball in the stars’ hands is less complicated, but because they draw so much defensive attention, they can also create effective plays even without it.
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John Schuhmann serves as a senior statistics analyst for NBA.com. You can contact him via email, explore his archive, and follow him on X.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its teams, or Warner Bros. Discovery.
