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A few weeks ago, I discussed what the Bucks need to do to maximize their offseason possibilities while remaining in title contention. With free agency opening today, I looked at how they might use that avenue to upgrade the roster, but as I mentioned, that’s a limited route for the Bucks due to the second apron. In order to sign a free agent to anything more than a minimum contract, they’d need to use the $5.2m taxpayer version of the mid-level exception.
That’s something they can’t do if they’re over the $189.5m second apron, and they also can’t aggregate outgoing salaries together in a trade. It’s not possible for them to put, say, Pat Connaughton and MarJon Beauchamp together in a deal, no matter what they get in return. If they do manage to drop beneath the second apron and either use any part of that mid-level and/or aggregate salaries in a trade, they’re hard-capped at $189.5 for the entire season.
While they could waive Connaughton and stretch the remaining $18.8m guaranteed on his contract over as many as five seasons to get beneath the second apron, trading out a single salary is a lot more palatable, if harder. A trade that drops team salary by at least $1.9m could put them in a position to duck the second apron and avoid its penalties (which I outlined earlier) But before discussing trades, let’s look at the roster differently than the salary-based view I laid out earlier today.
Stars, young guys, and… not much in between
As it stands, the roster has a trio of bonafide stars who are all still capable of huge postseason performances. When all three are healthy, the Bucks are among the league’s best five teams. When one of them isn’t, they start to get worse. Without Lillard or Middleton, they’re still a playoff-caliber team, but as we saw in 2022, maybe not one who can make a deep run. Without Giannis Antetokounmpo, they’re probably more like a play-in team, as we saw last year and this year. Without two of them? As we saw in Game 4, it can get bad.
Obviously, you have to hope for good health when it matters most. Any team—including the Celtics and Mavericks—would take a serious hit to their title-winning abilities if they lost one of their two or three All-Stars for multiple playoff games. That being said, even if all three of the Bucks stars are healthy, let’s say one has an off night or two. Others need to step up, and we’ve seen these past Bucks three postseasons how important it is to have a rotation of players that help you more than they hurt you filling out the rest of your rotation.
In the playoffs, it’s nigh-impossible to win a seven-game series—especially versus elite teams like Boston—without a minimum of seven guys you can rely on every time out. Look at the Celtics: beyond their two true stars, they have three other starters plus Al Horford who don’t have to be more than high-level role players, then Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard beyond them. That’s eight, and eight is a dream. Six, though, is really pushing it. Milwaukee barely eked by Brooklyn in 2021 by playing only their starters and Connaughton by the end of the series. They managed to get by Atlanta in the next round when Bobby Portis stepped back into what became a six-man group (plus a little help from Jeff Teague) to replace some of the injured Giannis’ production.
In the last three postseasons, the Bucks haven’t even had six. In 2022, beyond Giannis and Jrue Holiday, they had a solid Connaughton, hit-or-miss contributions from Brook Lopez, a heater from Grayson Allen in round one, and Wesley Matthews’ defense. Not exactly seven. Four, maybe five on any given night, but only one reliable star. In 2023, they had an excellent Middleton, a great Lopez, an okay Holiday, plus solid work from Allen and Connaughton in most games. When Giannis wasn’t hurt, he wasn’t as effective, and the other four guys weren’t enough. Probably five guys at most. This year’s team had even fewer: elite Middleton, solid Lopez, Patrick Beverley, and elite Dame (on one leg, if that) when he was healthy enough to play. For much of the series, Portis and Malik Beasleyhurt more than they helped. Four guys, essentially.
When injuries pop up, everyone moves up a rung on the ladder and you look to your eighth man and higher. If an injury is to a guy like Donte DiVincenzo in 2021, it’s a lot easier to deal with. With a star, much much harder. So how does Milwaukee fill in spots four through eight (or nine) behind their stars with guys who can keep them afloat? The non-stars remaining on the 2024–25 roster who help you more than they hurt you is a list of one: Lopez. Connaughton is no longer dependable and Portis never really was in the playoffs, spare some games versus in the later rounds of the 2021 title run (for which we’ll be forever grateful). The hope is that one or two of the Bucks’ now larger core of young guys become part of the reliable crew.
Regardless of who stays or goes, the Bucks have just four players who merit the kind of trust I’m talking about, and two are in their mid-thirties. To win a title in 2025 or beyond, they need more of them. Finding that kind of player on the open market might be possible: I talked about younger, unproven free agents like Troy Brown, Haywood Highsmith, and Chuma Okeke earlier today. But they’re free agents for a reason. The kind of quality talent they need is probably going to necessitate giving something up in a trade. What could that be?
Tradeable assets (the cheap ones)
Now that the 2024 NBA Draft has passed, the Bucks are able to trade either their first- or second-round draft picks in the 2031 draft. The former is probably the most valuable trade chip they possess, and it cannot be protected since picks can only be traded seven years out because protections don’t roll over past that time frame. It’s also notable that if they finish 2024–25 above the second apron, their 2032 first-round pick will be “frozen,” which is to say that they can’t trade it. So perhaps now might be the time to move a pick, while they still can.
Unlike in some previous years, Milwaukee also has a corps of young players who, while inexperienced and each facing significant questions about whether or not they can stick in the NBA, could be of interest to rivals. Each with an NBA-caliber skill, A.J. Green and Andre Jackson Jr. are the best of this group, reflected by their presence in the playoff rotation two months ago. Beauchamp hasn’t shown as much aptitude in any area as Green and Jackson have in theirs, but as a former first-round pick, he might entice teams with some untapped upside. Chris Livingston has shown even less and doesn’t have much value on his own.
Speaking of young guys, new draftees AJ Johnson and Tyler Smith are tradeable, but since they haven’t signed their rookie deals yet, would count for $0 in outgoing salary. While this would normally not be useful, it bears mentioning with the Bucks over the second apron because they would not count as an aggregated salary. So Milwaukee could trade either guy they just drafted alongside a player currently on their roster (say Lopez) ], could take up to $23m in return, but would not run afoul of the prohibition second apron teams have on sending out two of their own players together in the same deal, nor would they be hard-capped at $189.5m for 2024–25.
Tradeable… assets?
Then we have the veterans. A trio of guys who have contributed much to contending Bucks teams going back to 2018 and whose salaries are in that kind of mid-tier range good for salary matching: Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Pat Connaughton. As the most obvious trade candidates on the team due to their salaries and contract lengths, each of them has been mentioned in rumors in recent weeks.
Let’s set aside the roster needs that moving any of them might create (and boy, would trading any of the big men leave a huge hole). Because they can’t be aggregated together as long as the Bucks are over the second apron, each can’t bring back more in salary than they currently earn. As I’ll explain, there’s not much point in trading any of them for a small reduction in team salary—they’d need to cut payroll a bit more earnestly to get real benefits.
As I mentioned up top, dipping beneath the second apron (assuming they sign both draftees to rookie deals and guarantee A.J. Green’s 2024–25 salary) would require the Bucks to cut at least $1.9m in guaranteed salary. This would allow them to aggregate players in future deals, keep their 2032 first-rounder unfrozen next summer, and send cash out in a trade. Bearing in mind that not all of these players’ teams could accept Lopez’s salary in return and Milwaukee may have to send him to a third team, here are some attainable players whose salaries are at least $1.9m beneath his:
Trading Lopez to dip beneath the second apron
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Brook Lopez
$23,000,000
1
Marcus Smart
$20,210,284
2
Jarrett Allen
$20,000,000
2
Nikola Vučević
$20,000,000
2
Jakob Poeltl
$19,500,000
2
Duncan Robinson
$19,406,000
2
Norman Powell
$19,241,379
2
Bojan Bogdanović
$19,032,850
1
Keldon Johnson
$19,000,000
3
Collin Sexton
$18,150,000
2
Jusuf Nurkić
$18,125,000
2
Harrison Barnes
$18,000,000
2
Bogdan Bogdanović
$17,260,000
3
Let’s pause here for a second. If they want to go far enough below the second apron and gain access to the entirety of the $5.2m taxpayer mid-level exception, they’d need to cut at least $6m from their team salary. This next list is players whose differential is at least that much beneath his $23m:
Trading Lopez to open up the TPMLE
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Brook Lopez
$23,000,000
1
Kevin Huerter
$16,830,357
2
Zach Collins
$16,741,200
2
Caris LeVert
$16,615,384
1
Luguentz Dort
$16,500,000
3
Dāvis Bertāns
$16,000,000
1
Max Strus
$15,212,068
3
Isaiah Stewart
$15,000,000
4
Dorian Finney-Smith
$14,924,167
2
Mitchell Robinson
$14,318,182
2
Jordan Clarkson
$14,092,577
2
Grant Williams
$13,025,250
3
Dennis Schröder
$13,025,250
1
Cole Anthony
$12,900,000
3
Kelly Olynyk
$12,804,878
2
Devonte’ Graham
$12,650,000
1
Steven Adams
$12,600,000
1
I’m stopping here because Portis’ salary for next year is just over $12.5m. From here on down, these are guys who the Bucks could take back for Portis as well as for Lopez (with the same caveat above that a third team could be required in any potential deal):
Trading Portis
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Bobby Portis
$12,578,286
2
Brandon Clarke
$12,500,000
3
Robert Williams
$12,428,571
2
Wendell Carter Jr.
$11,950,000
2
Enough to drop below second apron
P.J. Tucker
$11,539,000
1
Terance Mann
$11,423,077
1
Larry Nance Jr.
$11,205,000
1
Matisse Thybulle
$11,025,000
2
Maxi Kleber
$11,000,000
2
Gabe Vincent
$11,000,000
2
Landry Shamet
$11,000,000
2
Chris Boucher
$10,810,000
1
Jarred Vanderbilt
$10,714,286
4
Jeff Green
$9,600,000
1
And here’s where we get to Connaughton at $9.4m:
Trading Connaughton
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Player
2024-25
Salary
Years Remaining
Pat Connaughton
$9,423,869
2
Gary Payton II
$9,130,000
1
Zeke Nnaji
$8,888,889
4
Georges Niang
$8,500,000
2
Cody Martin
$8,120,000
2
Jock Landale
$8,000,000
3
Trey Lyles
$8,000,000
1
Kevon Looney
$8,000,000
1
Jaden Ivey
$7,977,240
2
Vasilije Micić
$7,723,000
2
Paul Reed
$7,723,000
2
Enough to drop below second apron
Jae’Sean Tate
$7,065,217
1
Ayo Dosunmu
$7,000,000
2
Nassir Little
$6,750,000
3
Kenrich Williams
$6,669,000
3
Enough to open up MLE if trading Portis
Jevon Carter
$6,500,000
2
Dean Wade
$6,166,667
2
John Konchar
$6,165,000
3
Ziaire Williams
$6,133,005
1
Chris Duarte
$5,893,768
1
Corey Kispert
$5,705,887
1
Johnny Davis
$5,291,160
2
Reggie Jackson
$5,250,000
1
Ousmane Dieng
$5,027,040
2
Nick Richards
$5,000,000
2
Tre Mann
$4,908,373
1
Jalen McDaniels
$4,741,800
1
Isaiah Jackson
$4,435,381
1
Ochai Agbaji
$4,310,280
2
Bones Hyland
$4,158,439
1
Dwight Powell
$4,000,000
2
Day’Ron Sharpe
$3,989,122
1
Santi Aldama
$3,960,531
1
Amir Coffey
$3,938,271
1
Tari Eason
$3,695,160
2
Dalen Terry
$3,510,480
2
Enough to open up MLE if trading Connaughton
Derrick Rose
$3,356,271
1
Jake LaRavia
$3,352,680
2
Josh Richardson
$3,051,153
1
Christian Wood
$3,036,040
1
Walker Kessler
$2,965,920
2
David Roddy
$2,847,240
2
Torrey Craig
$2,845,342
1
Marcus Sasser
$2,755,080
3
Bruno Fernando
$2,717,391
2
Omer Yurtseven
$2,660,000
1
Keita Bates-Diop
$2,654,644
1
Blake Wesley
$2,624,280
2
Ty Jerome
$2,560,975
1
Wendell Moore Jr.
$2,537,040
2
Jaxson Hayes
$2,463,946
1
Cam Reddish
$2,463,946
1
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
$2,448,840
2
Matt Ryan
$2,196,970
2
Jared Butler
$2,196,970
2
There are of course dozens more players whose salaries would work too, but are probably less likely to be in a deal like this. You could combine any number of them in return for whichever of Lopez, Portis, or Connaughton is being traded, as long as the total incoming salary doesn’t exceed what’s going out. When a team is over the second apron, they can only send out one player, but they can bring back as many as they want, provided it’s less than 100% of the outgoing salary.
This won’t be easy with that last name, though. After we saw Reggie Jackson sent to the Hornets a few days ago alongside three second-round picks in exchange for cash considerations, we shouldn’t get our hopes up for a similar salary dump involving Connaughton. Jackson will get $5.3m next season in the last year of his contract and Denver needed to give Charlotte that many picks to take that on. While Jackson is over two years older than Connaughton, you can bet it would take a lot more than three future seconds to entice a team into acquiring the two years and $18.8m remaining on the latter’s deal, presuming Connaughton picks up his $9.4m player option next summer.
Who to target
As far as youth goes, many want the Bucks to be younger, but that’s just coded language for more athletic. Getting younger for age’s sake isn’t the idea here: Milwaukee needs to get better. What they need to get better at are traits associated with youth. Rather than acquiring two more untested players and hoping they can hack it in the league, I’d argue the Bucks should be adding young guys who already belong.
By my count, 245 players 24 or younger finished the season on NBA rosters, many of whom are on cheap rookie deals. On that list are some of the attainable names above, ones who have already proven their NBA worth like Ayo Dosunmu and Tari Eason. Expand that to 25 and under and you have guys like Kevin Huerter and Wendell Carter Jr. Lopez’s or Portis’ salary, then perhaps a youngster like Beauchamp and/or a future pick might be adequate compensation for some of these players.
Furthermore, there are many more guys younger than 25 who are not proven but might have some untapped potential and could be a better fit in Milwaukee than [insert current young Buck you’d say those exact same things about here]. These aren’t sexy names. You have change-of-scenery candidates like Zeke Nnaji and Nassir Little. Then David Roddy, Jake LaRavia, Ziaire Williams, Jared Butler, Johnny Davis, Ousmane Dieng, Dalen Terry… the list goes on. None of them move the needle right now and some of them might only get one more shot to prove they’re NBA players, but I’d argue you’re better off using a minimum on one of these lottery tickets rather than yet another vet north of 30. Then try to make him into a top-nine rotation player.
Why the Bucks should trade for an unproven guy
For all the hand-wringing about their player development, the Bucks have long had a solid track record of developing younger vets on their second (or third, or fourth) stops. Take Portis, who had a checkered reputation upon arrival in Milwaukee, but from an on-court perspective, was thought of as somewhat of an empty-calories scorer on bad teams. That belied his actual talents, and like CBS Sports’ Sam Quinn mentions when discussing the Celtics and Mavs roster constructions, plundering bad teams for their top players—especially when they can be had cheaply—can result in found treasure.
Then there was Jevon Carter, Allen, and Connaughton (2018–2021 edition), who all came to town on cheap contracts—a vet minimum free agency signing in Connaughton’s case during the 2018 offseason—and played their way into key rotation roles. That was seemingly the route Milwaukee was going again in 2021 by signing Semi Ojeleye. While that didn’t work out, and they haven’t really gone back to the unproven young guy well since, now is a great time to do so.
An apt comparison here is Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Minnesota, a big contributor for them into the postseason. On his rookie deal, he showed some promise for New Orleans and was a secondary part of the package they used to acquire C.J. McCollum and Larry Nance Jr. from Portland in 2022. The Blazers traded him the very next day to the Jazz in what amounted to a salary dump. In Utah, he hardly played and was sent to Minnesota exactly a year later. After essentially being a throw-in in multiple trades, he’s now a key part of a contender’s rotation. While I don’t know if any of the players I mentioned a few paragraphs up will follow that trajectory, they at least should be easy to acquire in a trade.
We’re just over hours away from the contract-signing melee that occurs every June 30th. Several trades are always mixed in there as well, including many that don’t grab headlines and are easily forgotten. If the Bucks make a swap, it will probably be one of those less-heralded trades. However, it could have a major impact on what they can do in free agency and open up the possibility of a more significant trade involving multiple current Bucks that goes down either this month or closer to next year’s trade deadline.
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Publish date : 2024-06-30 17:30:00
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